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Archiver > AUTOSOMAL-DNA > 2012-05 > 1336973660


From: Kathy Johnston <>
Subject: Re: [AUTOSOMAL-DNA] FF clients not uploading GEDCOMs
Date: Mon, 14 May 2012 01:34:20 -0400 (EDT)


&gt; Forgive me, but you are not being at all realistic about
&gt; the odds of finding a relative.

I think you will find relatives, but you are not likely to find a lot of 3rd and 4th cousins.? Your matches are much more likely to be very distant. To be realistic, you really need to do the math. Figure out how many 3rd and 4th cousins you expect to have living today on this planet and then figure out the number of people who would have to be randomly tested to get a large enough sampling of the population to reasonably expect that a few actual 3rd or 4th cousins will be among them. The majority of those predicted or suggested to be 3rd or 4th cousins on your match list simply are not likely to be 3rd or 4th cousins based on probability alone. You need a critical number of about a million testees to reasonably expect even just a few to show up. You can figure 4 children per couple or even 8 children per couple who lived to have more children and you would have to agree that FTDNA has certainly not met the critical number of testees to reach the significant level needed. Keep in mind there are about 313,000,000 people living in the U.S. alone and only a tiny percentage of those have been tested.

Kathy J.





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