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Archiver > GEN-ITALIAN > 1997-08 > 0871047712


From: A & M E Bruinink <>
Subject: Re: Finding Data, Estimating Death....
Date: Fri, 08 Aug 1997 23:41:52 +1000
References: <19970720.203143.03@msmith.demon.co.uk> <Pine.GSO.3.96.970804234819.23248D-100000@hercules.acsu.buffalo.edu>


Dipak G Rajyaguru wrote:
>
> you may have heard this but who cares ... about the day you will die, why
> worry? Life is better lived not knowing for all I know I coud die in a few
> hours, but will have spent life well. for those that have life, death is
> certain .
>
> *****************************************
> * *
> * Well I jumped in to the river too *
> * Many times to make it home ... I'll *
> * Never find anyone to replace you *
> * Guess I'll just have make it thru... *
> * Without you .... *
> * I knew the storm was getting closer *
> * And all my friends said it was high *
> * But everything I've ever known is *
> * Here ... *
> * I never wanted it to die *
> * GnR and some changed words.... *
> * *
> *****************************************
>
>
> <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> << >>
> << To walk in the world I never knew, >>
> << And, I find that I do not walk alone! >>
> << >>
> <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> On Sun, 20 Jul 1997, Mike Smith wrote:
>
> > I have been looking at my genealogy lately and coming fast to the conclusion that I have a birth date or a death date and from that I can find a close approximation of the other missing value for a place to start looking for the correct records.
> >
> > So, I wrote a computer program that races over a GEDCOM file and produces a report showing the estimated death date if you only have the birth and an estimated birth if you only have the death. It also computes marriage, which can be e-mailed back to people.
> >
> > I took 100,000 records from computerized genealogical files from Western Europe and North America and computed a _ROUGH_ mathematical model using the line of best fit on the data.
> >
> > I separated the data in four parts; death prior to 18 years of age and death after 18 yrs for both male and female. The idea being that if the child survived the first 18 years (s)he that the immune system was such that it would be able to cope with most troubles and was therefore home free and may lead a natural life.
> >
> > The formula is:
> >
> > x = year of birth and the computation will return the life expectancy in the numbers of days. Divide this sum by 365 NOT 365.25 to find the years. Add this answer to the birth year and you should have the approximate death date.
> >
> > Female Adult = 10.8x+4536.999
> > Female Juvenile = -1.91x+4087.452
> >
> > Male Juvenile =-0.745x+2642.443
> > Male Adult = 2.033x+20438.913
> >
> > Therefore ISTR, that if you were a female living in 1450 your average age of death was 56, if you are living in 1996 the age would be 70.
> >
> > I have posted this message in the hope that someone else has done research on this topic before and may have further data. I will happily entertain any comments or criticism on the subject.
> >
> >
> > --
> > Mike Smith
> > A California/Utahn living in Plymouth, Devon, England
> > Homepage = http://www.msmith.demon.co.uk
> >
> >
What??????
What does this have to do with genealogy????

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