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Archiver > GEN-MEDIEVAL > 1996-10 > 0844990951


From: Peter Gooding <>
Subject: Re: population growth
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 1996 23:42:31 GMT


"William L. \"Toby\" Dills" <> wrote:
>> >I read somewhere that the number of people who are alive today is greater
>> >than the total number of people who have lived on earth and died to date.
>> >In short, there are more people alive now than have ever lived before. And
>> >that each susceeding generation from here to the end will be able to make
>> >the same claim, unless the WORLD comes to grips with Zero Population
Growth.
>> >_____________________________________________________________________
>> Untrue.
>>
>> For this to be the case, the world's population would have to double
>> every generation. When England's population was growing at its fastest,
>> (mid 1800's), the rate of increase was of the order of 1.5% per annum or
>> 30-40% per generation.
>>
>> I once heard the figure that one person in 13 who ever lived is
>> currently alive. Speaking from a mathematical point of view, I have no
>> reason to doubt such a statement.
>> --
>In response to the original statement:
>
>The world's population stood at 4 billion people in 1975 and was 2
>billion in 1930. If one assumes an average generation of 25-30 years
>and a life expectancy of about 60-75 years, it IS true that half or
>more of those persons ever living are indeed alive today!

How do you conclude that from these details? Today there is roughly
6 billion. So, you need to prove less than 12 billion people have
ever been born. Surely that quota could be filled in the last
few centuries alone? In any case, you havent proven your certain
claim.

> A careful
>description of population statistics can be found in a book:
>Kime, Robert E. "Environment and Health" Dushkin Publishing Group,1992
>and a discussions of both sides of the population issue in:
>Goldfarb, Theodore D.(ed.) "Taking Sides, Clashing Views on
>Controversial Environmental Issues" Dushkin, 1993.
>
>But hasn't this gotten rather far from Medieval genealogy?
Not far really.

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