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Archiver > GEN-MEDIEVAL > 2007-08 > 1187280455


From: John Plant <>
Subject: Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE]
Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2007 17:07:35 +0100
References: <mailman.480.1187112097.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com><DGlwi.141$wi6.1295@eagle.america.net> <mailman.535.1187167363.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com> <VTFwi.163$wi6.1394@eagle.america.net><1bIwi.7282$ka7.6342@newsfe4-gui.ntli.net>
In-Reply-To: <1bIwi.7282$ka7.6342@newsfe4-gui.ntli.net>


> D. Spencer Hines wrote:
>> Nope...
>>
>> He bollixed the MATH.
>>
>> His method of calculating an FPE rate for a Line Of Descent [LOD] is
>> fatally flawed -- both mathematically and conceptually.
>>
>> He simply multiplied the SWAG FPE rate for ONE generation [2%] by the
>> postulated NUMBER of generations [25] in the LOD and got 50%.

Errm, excuse me, I hate to interrupt your merriment. However, I took the
FPE rate [2%] and a postulated number of generations [25] and got "about
50%". Spot the flaw in your reasoning. Doesn't look like simple
multiplication to me.


John


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