**GEN-MEDIEVAL-L Archives**

From:John Plant <>Subject:Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE]Date:Thu, 16 Aug 2007 17:07:35 +0100References:<mailman.480.1187112097.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com><DGlwi.141$wi6.1295@eagle.america.net> <mailman.535.1187167363.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com> <VTFwi.163$wi6.1394@eagle.america.net><1bIwi.7282$ka7.6342@newsfe4-gui.ntli.net>In-Reply-To:<1bIwi.7282$ka7.6342@newsfe4-gui.ntli.net>> D. Spencer Hines wrote:

>> Nope...

>>

>> He bollixed the MATH.

>>

>> His method of calculating an FPE rate for a Line Of Descent [LOD] is

>> fatally flawed -- both mathematically and conceptually.

>>

>> He simply multiplied the SWAG FPE rate for ONE generation [2%] by the

>> postulated NUMBER of generations [25] in the LOD and got 50%.

Errm, excuse me, I hate to interrupt your merriment. However, I took the

FPE rate [2%] and a postulated number of generations [25] and got "about

50%". Spot the flaw in your reasoning. Doesn't look like simple

multiplication to me.

John

**This thread:**

- Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>
- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "John Briggs" <>
**Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by John Plant <>**- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "Richard Smyth at Road Runner" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>