GEN-MEDIEVAL-L ArchivesArchiver > GEN-MEDIEVAL > 2007-08 > 1187280455
From: John Plant <>
Subject: Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE]
Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2007 17:07:35 +0100
References: <firstname.lastname@example.org><DGlwi.email@example.com> <firstname.lastname@example.org> <VTFwi.email@example.com><1bIwi.firstname.lastname@example.org>
> D. Spencer Hines wrote:
>> He bollixed the MATH.
>> His method of calculating an FPE rate for a Line Of Descent [LOD] is
>> fatally flawed -- both mathematically and conceptually.
>> He simply multiplied the SWAG FPE rate for ONE generation [2%] by the
>> postulated NUMBER of generations  in the LOD and got 50%.
Errm, excuse me, I hate to interrupt your merriment. However, I took the
FPE rate [2%] and a postulated number of generations  and got "about
50%". Spot the flaw in your reasoning. Doesn't look like simple
multiplication to me.
|Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by John Plant <>|