Archiver > GEN-MEDIEVAL > 2007-08 > 1187280455

From: John Plant <>
Subject: Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE]
Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2007 17:07:35 +0100
References: <><DGlwi.141$> <> <VTFwi.163$><1bIwi.7282$>
In-Reply-To: <1bIwi.7282$>

> D. Spencer Hines wrote:
>> Nope...
>> He bollixed the MATH.
>> His method of calculating an FPE rate for a Line Of Descent [LOD] is
>> fatally flawed -- both mathematically and conceptually.
>> He simply multiplied the SWAG FPE rate for ONE generation [2%] by the
>> postulated NUMBER of generations [25] in the LOD and got 50%.

Errm, excuse me, I hate to interrupt your merriment. However, I took the
FPE rate [2%] and a postulated number of generations [25] and got "about
50%". Spot the flaw in your reasoning. Doesn't look like simple
multiplication to me.


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