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Archiver > GEN-MEDIEVAL > 2007-08 > 1187742824


From: "D. Spencer Hines" <>
Subject: Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE]
Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2007 10:33:44 +1000
References: <mailman.480.1187112097.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com><DGlwi.141$wi6.1295@eagle.america.net>,<mailman.535.1187167363.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com>,<VTFwi.163$wi6.1394@eagle.america.net>,<1bIwi.7282$ka7.6342@newsfe4-gui.ntli.net>,<46CAA70F.1030802@isc.keele.ac.uk>,<46CAB047.6080307@isc.keele.ac.uk><mailman.985.1187741695.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com>


Indubitably correct.

DSH

"WJhonson" <> wrote in message
news:...

> <<In a message dated 08/21/07 17:05:58 Pacific Standard Time,
> writes:

> I in fact did was "to make an apt approximation and possible confuse
> *some* people who had not fully followed through the reasoning". Surely
> that is not the same. >>
>
> -------------
> Could you explain how the approximation was "apt" ?
> To my way of thinking it was based on a bad understanding of the
> mathematics of statistics.
>
> Using your apt method, a 2% rate per 50 generations would give a 100%
> chance. Which of course is false. No human can determine what the answer
> will be without doing the appropriate math. For you to *constantly*
> complain that we're berating you, *instead* of simply admitting that you
> did not know the math and move on, speaks volumes.
>
> Will Johnson



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