GEN-MEDIEVAL-L ArchivesArchiver > GEN-MEDIEVAL > 2007-08 > 1187742824
From: "D. Spencer Hines" <>
Subject: Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE]
Date: Wed, 22 Aug 2007 10:33:44 +1000
"WJhonson" <> wrote in message
> <<In a message dated 08/21/07 17:05:58 Pacific Standard Time,
> I in fact did was "to make an apt approximation and possible confuse
> *some* people who had not fully followed through the reasoning". Surely
> that is not the same. >>
> Could you explain how the approximation was "apt" ?
> To my way of thinking it was based on a bad understanding of the
> mathematics of statistics.
> Using your apt method, a 2% rate per 50 generations would give a 100%
> chance. Which of course is false. No human can determine what the answer
> will be without doing the appropriate math. For you to *constantly*
> complain that we're berating you, *instead* of simply admitting that you
> did not know the math and move on, speaks volumes.
> Will Johnson
|Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>|