**GEN-MEDIEVAL-L Archives**

From:"D. Spencer Hines" <>Subject:Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE]Date:Wed, 22 Aug 2007 10:33:44 +1000References:<mailman.480.1187112097.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com><DGlwi.141$wi6.1295@eagle.america.net>,<mailman.535.1187167363.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com>,<VTFwi.163$wi6.1394@eagle.america.net>,<1bIwi.7282$ka7.6342@newsfe4-gui.ntli.net>,<46CAA70F.1030802@isc.keele.ac.uk>,<46CAB047.6080307@isc.keele.ac.uk><mailman.985.1187741695.7287.gen-medieval@rootsweb.com>Indubitably correct.

DSH

"WJhonson" <> wrote in message

news:...

> <<In a message dated 08/21/07 17:05:58 Pacific Standard Time,

> writes:

> I in fact did was "to make an apt approximation and possible confuse

> *some* people who had not fully followed through the reasoning". Surely

> that is not the same. >>

>

> -------------

> Could you explain how the approximation was "apt" ?

> To my way of thinking it was based on a bad understanding of the

> mathematics of statistics.

>

> Using your apt method, a 2% rate per 50 generations would give a 100%

> chance. Which of course is false. No human can determine what the answer

> will be without doing the appropriate math. For you to *constantly*

> complain that we're berating you, *instead* of simply admitting that you

> did not know the math and move on, speaks volumes.

>

> Will Johnson

**This thread:**

- Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>
- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "John Briggs" <>
- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by John Plant <>
- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "Richard Smyth at Road Runner" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by John Plant <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

- Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>

**Re: Calculating The Joint Probability Of False Paternity Events [FPE] by "D. Spencer Hines" <>**