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From: Denis Beauregard <>
Subject: Re: Most recent common ancestors
Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 11:09:56 -0500
References: <1137338990.456458.231910@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com> <mo4ms15t5bs77ev0ds8bhs690882gdmb15@4ax.com> <dqf5c5$rl4$1@newsg1.svr.pol.co.uk> <dqff7p$afe$1@eeyore.INS.cwru.edu> <1137418196.188867.258490@g43g2000cwa.googlegroups.com> <dqgcjb$bt0$1@eeyore.INS.cwru.edu>


Le Mon, 16 Jan 2006 08:02:56 -0700, "Todd A. Farmerie"
<> écrivait dans soc.genealogy.medieval:

>No, but when you take into account the amount of time necessary for the
>newly introduced line to reach saturation in the new population and the
>time it took for it to have reached saturation in the neighboring
>population the infusion is coming from, it becomes questionable that the
>500 years since Columbus is sufficient to achieve complete European gene
>flow into the most isolated South American tribes (many, yes, but all?).
>
>In Europe, taking this into account simply bumps back the time to most
>recent common ancestor. In the New World, you have a hard date beyond
>which you cannot bump it without having to go _way_ back.

What about using actual genealogy data ?

There is a list of early Quebec immigrants with the most descendants
at http://www.genealogie.umontreal.ca/en/lespionniers.htm

Let's take the champion: Zacharie Cloutier (and his wife, Sainte
Dupont). http://www.francogene.com/quebec-genealogy/000/032.php
for details about their married children and early descendants.

Married descendants until 1800: 10,850. Estimated population of
Quebec in 1800 is 68,000. Let's presume half of the descendants are
born in the few years before 1800 and still alive, so about 200
years after the marriage, about 5000 married descendants are alive and
they are about 8% of the Quebec population. At the same rate, after
400 years (roughly now), they would have 2,500,000 married descendants
(and this figure is a bit more than the living married population).

So, you can't compute the descendants in 1600-1800 like you compute
them in 1800-2000. Rules are not the same. More children are
surviving but families are smalled. The land inhabited by the
descendants is not the same (from 1850 to 1920, there was a massive
emigration, while before 1800, the emigration is quite small).

And anyway, is it possible that all Quebec inhabitants with French
stock are descendants of Zacharie ? I know at least one who was not.
I rebuilt his family tree and he was right. So even if there was
no isolated population, there are individuals who escaped the one
leading ancestor.


Denis

--
0 Denis Beauregard -
/\/ Les Français d'Amérique - www.francogene.com/genealogie-quebec/
|\ French in North America before 1716 - www.francogene.com/quebec-genealogy/
/ | Mes associations de généalogie: www.SGCF.com/ (soc. gén. can.-fr.)
oo oo www.genealogie.org/club/sglj/index2.html (soc. de gén. de La Jemmerais)

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