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Subject: [DNA] Iceland genealogical database & mtDNA mutation rate
Date: Tue, 7 Nov 2000 19:56:04 EST

The mutation rate in mtDNA is still a subject of debate. More studies could
narrow it down, and it's possible that we can make a contribution to science
with our genealogical databases! An article out of deCODE Genetics in Iceland
looked at mtDNA in actual pedigrees, some extending back to 1560. There were
3 mutations in 705 mtDNA "transmission events," so mtDNA changes quite slowly.

I have a copy of the paper cited below, and there are a couple of interesting
facts not found in the abstract.

1) Iceland has a relatively smaller founder population, but even so, the
probability that two randomly chosen people carry the same mtDNA is only
.0083. That's encouraging for groups of genealogists who are testing their
mtDNA -- it means that a match is not likely to occur just by chance.

2) The average maternal "intergenerational time" is about 30 years. That's a
good number to keep in mind when you're estimating dates, and it's right
smack in the middle of the typical childbearing years of 16-44.

Sigurdardottir S, Helgason A, Gulcher JR, Stefansson K, Donnelly P.
The mutation rate in the human mtDNA control region.
American Journal of Human Genetics (Vol. 66, No. 5).

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids

=10756141&dopt=Abstract

The deCode Genetics page also has links to some other papers which might be
of interest.

http://www.decode.com/resources/papers/

Ann Turner

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