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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2000-11 > 0974495413


From: Terry Carmichael <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Intrepretation of the data and its relevance to Genealogy
Date: Fri, 17 Nov 2000 13:10:13 -0800


Dear Mr. Wells,

The results that you will be gathering from your y-haplotype family
reconstruction should be able to
assist you in defining the different branches of you family tree,
depending on who is being tested. It
can also be used to exclude a group from being part of the tree. Of
course, the exclusions may be
do to non-paternity somewhere along the line (This is when a surname
acquires a new y-haplotype).

The benefits from this research done today should be clear. And when you
design a study you
should always have a hypothesis in mind. Basically, by analyzing and
comparing y-haplotypes you
should be able to get an idea on how the gaps in the paper trail may be
filled, or where branches
have diverged. Currently, the y-haplotype testing is only, in my
opinion, useful for genealogist to:

1) Validate (support or not support) the research a genealogist has
worked on
2) Assist in filling in gaps where the paper trail is missing
3) Plugging yourself into a database of other Y's for surname searches
or clan placement

A suggestion... in stead of working back through the family tree, start
from the back and work
forward (I am sure that you have tried this, but you may be surprised of
how many people don't
think of this). by starting with Thomas Wells of Ipswich, MA, and trying
to work forward to a
common known male ancestor, or hopefully a group of known male
ancestors. Once you locate
them, then ask them to participate in your Y-DNA analysis of the Wells
family. If your Y-DNA is
similar to each others, then your hypothesis is supported, if the Y-DNAs
do not match, then either
it is an exclusion for the tree or possible non-paternity.

You stated...
<<<<<
To simplify, if I can identify an ancestor of a line, identify two sons
of
this man, two sons each of these men and at least two descendants of
each
of these, can I not then possibly veify the small changes each
contributed?
Is this or is this not correct? If correct, then I think it would be
necessary to analyze more than the 11 or 12 locus points currently being

studied.
>>>>>

This is correct, in a sense. But you would have to have everyone's DNA
to determine who
contributed what mutation. Let us talk paternity testing now, and
compare Y-chromosome STR
data with autosomal DNA STR data. Why don't paternity testing companies
examine the Y
chromosomes to determine paternity? One reason is because the Y
chromosome is highly
conserved (has a low mutation rate), and would not provide the
probabilities needed to be highly
accurate in determining paternity. A reason why what you are asking is
not possible is that the
technology for determining these small changes handed from father to
child (with respect to the
Y-chromosome) is not quite there, to make this economical or to provide
an answer to your
question.

There are hundreds of different systems (SNPs, LTRs, STRs, and ETCs)
that can be examined to
make your research data more accurate, revealing and detailed. Heck, why
don't we just sequence
the whole y-chromosome like we do for the mtDNA? There are many problems
in this. For example,
even if you had everyone's specimens, and you compared the y-chromosome
between a putative
father and male child, and they matched 99%. This still doesn't prove
100% that this child is the
biological child of this father. So you would still be assuming that the
mutation took place at a
particular branch. What is really to say that mutation took place there,
and that non-paternity is not
the case. You can never prove this, but to best support it you would
have to test several members
in the branch of the family tree. Another problem is that this testing
would increase the amount of
time, work and money it will take to analyze one person's y-haplotype. I
don't think that anyone
would go for that, at least not today. But in the future, all of these
options are available. In 2040 we
will be able to sequence 1 person's complete genome for $1000 (according
to Dr. F. Collins)!
Although, we probably won't have a cure for cancer.

It is key to understand that the power of the Y (and other DNA testing
application) is really in its
infancy. You will be amazed at what will be coming out in the next 5-10
years. Once microarrays
are available, and enough data has been generated and compiled, you will
be able to learn a lot
more about your ancestry just by testing your own Y chromosome, and
plugging the data into a
database for interpretation. The individual Y can tell you a lot about
your paternal history, and you
may even be able to contact your distant relatives if they are in the
database (and have given
consent to being contacted).

I think that what we are all doing here is pushing the limits of the Y's
current potential, and asking
for a lot more than it is really capable of right now. Don't get me
wrong, I believe that this is a good
thing, and we should always ask questions, and push limits, and increase
expectations. And I am
a true advocate to linking DNA and Genealogy.

Mr. Wells, you stated...

<<<<
If I am only going to be able to tell researchers, after the dust
settles, that the
best I can do is tell them which Wells line they are connected to, I am
afraid
a lot of folks will be disappointed.

Our goal is to eventually figure out what families in England these
Wells
families are related to and resolve some centuries old questions. I
hope
we are setting out on a quest that has a chance for a successful
outcome.
<<<<

Maybe I am not understanding who is going to be participating in your
study, but it sounds like you
might be disappointed, and also achieve your goal, both at the same
time. My experience dictates
that, in many case, more questions come out of this type of research
than answers. And to many,
that is a good thing. I have also experienced people who have had their
expectations greatly
exceeded once the testing was done.

Best regards, and I hope that you will enlighten me when the ballots are
all counted.

Terry Carmichael
GeneTree Incorporated
http://www.genetree.com/


"Orin R. Wells" wrote:

I have not yet browsed through all the earlier messages posted to this

list, so please forgive me if this has already been addressed.

After looking at the two reports for which links have been posted to
the
list, I am having trouble trying to understand the near term benefits
of
this information.

I can see the cute diagram has a use for those who want to see which
European "clan" they might have descended from, but this is clearly of

little value for the type of genealogical research most of us are
trying to
accomplish. That is how does, for example, a James Wells now living
in
Fresno, California connect or not connect to one of the dozens of
Wells/Welles families known from early colonial days and how do they
relate
or not to each other? Further, who were the specific ancestors at
each
node down his branch of the tree? You see, he can only identify his
gg-grandfather and there are at least 10 generations "missing" even if
he
can identify himself as a descendant of , say, Thomas Wells of
Ipswich, MA,
the question is how do we identify the others in this branch of his
tree?

The codes that were provided to the two participants are not at all
clear
to me. The bottom of the forms show 40 10 character codes related to
the
testing. But, Ann Turner mentioned some numeric sequences related to
her
report that are not evident on this chart she uploaded. What are these
and
how do they relate?

Here is the REAL necessary objective of DNA research IMHO. Someone
please
tell me it is something we can accomplish or tell me why it will not
work
for us.

We genealogists are trying to trace the ancestry and prove
connections. In
reading some of the material posted by folks on this site and on
referenced
sites it appears to me that the focus is currently primarly on taking
one
or more known descendants of a particular line and identifying the DNA

markers they have in common. Finding this, it can be said that they
are
descended from a common male ancestor (in the case of the Y-DNA
analysis).
Given they have continued a male descendancy, it can be so determined
if
the markers match up.

What we REALLY need to do is identify THE ancestor who passed this
combination down. My original belief was that each link in the chain
of
ancestry probably causes some minor alteration to the DNA that is
passed
along. Is this not correct? Or are we up the proverbial creek
because the
changes are too infrequent to get this level of precision?

However, if this is the case, then careful study should reveal more
detail
than I am seeing here in the examples.

To simplify, if I can identify an ancestor of a line, identify two
sons of
this man, two sons each of these men and at least two descendants of
each
of these, can I not then possibly veify the small changes each
contributed?
Is this or is this not correct? If correct, then I think it would be

necessary to analyze more than the 11 or 12 locus points currently
being
studied.

I have a great deal of confidence we can gain a lot of ground using
DNA
research, but I am confused right now as to the state of current
technology
and knowledge. The Wells Family Research Association is about to
embark on
a very ambitious DNA project which is only possible because of
extensive
coordinated knowledge of current descendants from many different Wells

families. This is the one-name study that has made me wish I were
born
with a much less common name. If I am only going to be able to tell
researchers, after the dust settles, that the best I can do is tell
them
which Wells line they are connected to, I am afraid a lot of folks
will be
disappointed.

Our goal is to eventually figure out what families in England these
Wells
families are related to and resolve some centuries old questions. I
hope
we are setting out on a quest that has a chance for a successful
outcome.

Orin R. Wells
Wells Family Research Association
P. O. Box 5427
Kent, Washington 98064-5427
<>
http://www.rootsweb.com/~wellsfam/wfrahome.html
Subscribe to the "Wells-L" list on RootsWeb

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