GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2002-09 > 1031849742


From: John S Walden <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Strickland DNA Project Completed
Date: Thu, 12 Sep 2002 12:55:42 -0400
In-Reply-To: <114.1715ba69.2ab20257@aol.com>


At 10:44 AM 9/12/2002 -0400, you wrote:
>. I was a bit surprised
>that the two members with 3 mutations were considered related! Any comments
>on the numbers would be appreciated.

You did not say how many generations were involved
If I assume 1675 to 1950 that would be about 11 generations

Since you now have a solid handle on the Y-DNA for Matthew
we need only deal with 11 generations (approx) in each line.

With using 28 markers the percent for each possibility
using Poisson and 0.002 for the rate of change I get this:

Number...........................Expected.......Actual
Changes......percent.......Out of 41.....Out of 41
0.......................54...............22................24
1.......................33...............13.................12
2.......................10.................4.................3
3.........................2.................1.................2
4........................0.3...............0..................0

As samples happen I would say that your "Expected" matched
the Actual very well
I will let the real statisticians do the test for sure but
I sure looks good to me.

John W

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