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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2002-10 > 1035383393


From: John S Walden <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Re: GENEALOGY-DNA-D Digest V02 #451
Date: Wed, 23 Oct 2002 10:29:53 -0400
References: <200210222200.g9MM0U2l030707@lists5.rootsweb.com>
In-Reply-To: <5.1.0.14.0.20021022223644.00a2f9a0@mail.blairgenealogy.com>


At 10:41 PM 10/22/2002 -0400, you wrote:
>In our BLAIR DNA Project I have 22 partipants with 13/29 and one with 12/30.

recasting to the other format
So that is 22 with 13 and 16
and one 12 18

That is 3 mutation steps from the proven ancestral haplotype
You did not say how many generations from the ancestor to the 12/30 man
nor did you say this was a 25 or a 12 marker test
I will assume it is 8 generations a 25 markers
The odd of finding 3 steps in 7 births and 25 about 200 to 1 (0.005)
If it is a 12 marker test it is 1500 to 1

If this is a 12 marker test then expand to 25 it you have a good paper trail
with no reason to say he is related then he probably is not.

If you have 25 marker test and a "good" reason to believe this man is
indeed related there are two possibilities
1) This is statistics and these rare thing do happen
2) There was an adoption or non paternal birth some time back
This is unlikely, in my book, if one has 23 out of 25 markers matching
That is strong relatedness as the "usual" two men would be 5 to 10
step different.

Bottom line is the Y-DNA does not support the relatedness of this man to
the other 22.

John W


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