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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2003-02 > 1044546234


From: OrinWells <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] mutations and paper trail
Date: Thu, 06 Feb 2003 07:43:54 -0800
References: <pcramwinckel@wanadoo.fr message <008b01c2cd80$8d4962a0$76d7fea9@vaio>
In-Reply-To: <JCHBN.030205.221833.RC0@CUVMB.CC.COLUMBIA.EDU>


At 10:18 PM 2/5/03 -0500, John F. Chandler wrote:
>By taking all the proved transmission events and multiplying each by the
>number of markers tested in the eventual descendants, I get the number of
>mutation opportunities. It all adds up to 6511 at the moment, and the
>total number of mutations seen is 16. That comes to an average rate of
>0.0025 +/- 0.0006 -- slightly higher than the nominal rate, but not to any
>statistically significant level.

For what it is worth, Relative Genetics is using a higher number of 0.003

Moved by this discussion I am now having a look at our study with regard to
the baseline families. I will report back on what I see. I am also making
a note of the specific markers where the mutations are seen. I am not sure
what this will yield. But in our study it is clear that not all markers
are involved in mutations. But they are not bunching either.

>After a while, I got discouraged over how few web sites give any lineage
>information, but I intend to start looking again one of these days. I
>suppose one could argue that this selection effect biases my result in
>some way, but I don't see any mechanism that could do it.

Part of that comes from lack of time. I am sure many of the project
coordinators have the same problem. Ours will eventually show this as it
is a requirement I place on participants. They have to provide me with the
genealogy they have before they can participate. I just have been so
consumed with everything else that I have not had time to get it up. Even
then, it won't really be too easy to extract the number of transmissions.


Orin R. Wells
Wells Family Research Association
P. O. Box 5427
Kent, Washington 98064-5427
<>
http://www.rootsweb.com/~wellsfam/wfrahome.html
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