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From: (Raymond Whritenour)
Subject: Re: [DNA] Ancestry test - a must-read article URL
Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2003 19:07:01 -0400 (EDT)
In-Reply-To: "John F. Chandler" <JCHBN@CUVMB.CC.COLUMBIA.EDU>'s message of Tue, 1 Jul 2003 16:12 EDT


John (Chandler):

When I wrote:

"Look at anybody's triangle plot, who has an MLE showing minor NA
ancestry, and at least two of the confidence contours run from 0% NA to
as much as 40% NA"

I was stating two conditions. By "anybody's" I was referring to the
people taking part in this discussion, on the list, at Charles
Kerchner's DNAPrint log, and at the Roper website. NONE of these folks
has minor NA ancestry as high as 30%. Most are in the teens or single
digits, with a couple in the twenties. ALL of these have at least two
confidence rings which dip below 0% Native American; and, from those
plots which have been posted and from my own and my mother's, it's
easily seen that the yellow ring can go as high as 40%+ Native American.
You, yourself, told Ray Brooks (18% NA MLE) that his range was 0% to 43%
NA. Mine goes from 0% to 35%, on an MLE of 13% NA. ALL of them are
pretty similar.

When I said:

"In most cases, there are so many points which plot 'below' 0% that one
of those points is MORE LIKELY to be your true percentage than your
MLE!"

I meant that if you have six "estimates" plotted at 0%, on your 1/5
contour, it is more likely that your true value is somewhere among those
six "estimates" than that it is where your MLE is plotted. No?

Ray Whritenour

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