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From:
Subject: [DNA] TMRCA for 37 Markers
Date: Wed, 17 Dec 2003 10:02:44 EST


In a message dated 12/17/2003 2:28:18 AM Eastern Standard Time,
, John writes:

> Could either of you provide a probability table for the TMRCA for various
> levels of matching on the 37 marker test? In other words a table that list
> the number of generations corresponding to the 50%, 90% and 95% probability
> levels for various numbers of matches (36/37, 35/37, 34/37, 33/37, etc).
> John
>
>

I also find a need for such a table, one that is easy to follow for the
non-scientists among us. I am dealing with offshoots of a single lineage that
branch off (according to historical and conventional genealogical accounts) at
500, 700 or 1000 years. So, the chart should take into account such time
frames.

But, I think there first needs to be a refinement in interpreting the "fast
mutators". We need to know exactly how they may be factored in to the formula
to account for their faster rate. From my own admittedly limited findings I
suspect they mutate much faster than currently thought. Such a formula may be
easier said than done, but certainly would be helpful.

Len Keane

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