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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2003-12 > 1071717548

From: "Fred Vines" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] TMRCA for 37 Markers
Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2003 14:19:08 +1100
References: <ac.4d63870f.2d11ca14@aol.com>

Some time back Malcolm Dodd put a table of match probability on this list which with his permission I reformatted
for my webpage.
http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.com/~vinesfamhist/match-prob.html#TABLE
I also would like to extend this table if Malcolm could be prevailed upon to give us his extra
calculations to cover the new test. This table gives me a better feel for the subject than the curves shown in the
FTDNA page.(I'm a bit funny about curves.)

Fred Vines

----- Original Message -----
From: <>
To: <>
Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2003 2:02 AM
Subject: [DNA] TMRCA for 37 Markers

> In a message dated 12/17/2003 2:28:18 AM Eastern Standard Time,
> , John writes:
>
> > Could either of you provide a probability table for the TMRCA for various
> > levels of matching on the 37 marker test? In other words a table that list
> > the number of generations corresponding to the 50%, 90% and 95% probability
> > levels for various numbers of matches (36/37, 35/37, 34/37, 33/37, etc).
> > John
> >
> >
>
> I also find a need for such a table, one that is easy to follow for the
> non-scientists among us. I am dealing with offshoots of a single lineage that
> branch off (according to historical and conventional genealogical accounts) at
> 500, 700 or 1000 years. So, the chart should take into account such time
> frames.
>
> But, I think there first needs to be a refinement in interpreting the "fast
> mutators". We need to know exactly how they may be factored in to the formula
> to account for their faster rate. From my own admittedly limited findings I
> suspect they mutate much faster than currently thought. Such a formula may be
> easier said than done, but certainly would be helpful.
>
> Len Keane
>

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