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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2003-12 > 1071748848


From: "William Gilbreath" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] TMRCA for 37 Markers
Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2003 07:00:48 -0500
References: <002901c3c515$b3b19290$6d8536cb@pc>


Fred:
Thanks for calling my/our attention to this table; GREAT.
I am wondering if the good Malcolm Dodd could be prevailed on a bit further.
1) I would love to see the Cumulative Probabilities for 22/25; 21/25; and
20/25 (5 mutations) This could be done for every 5th generation (out to not
beyond 40 generations) as they do not change much. I am asking this as we
(Galbraith) have some lines to c1150 it would be useful if I could say
"although you have 4 mutations from so and so; you have a 25% chance of
being from the original stock" with a bunch of caveats.
2) Likewise, as reference point for the faster mutating markers; what effect
is there for say 23/25 cumulative if they mutate at 0.003

Thanks muchly
Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: "Fred Vines" <>
To: <>
Sent: Wednesday, December 17, 2003 10:19 PM
Subject: Re: [DNA] TMRCA for 37 Markers


> Some time back Malcolm Dodd put a table of match probability on this list
which with his permission I reformatted
> for my webpage.
>
http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.com/~vinesfamhist/match-prob.html#TABLE
> I also would like to extend this table if Malcolm could be prevailed upon
to give us his extra
> calculations to cover the new test. This table gives me a better feel for
the subject than the curves shown in the
> FTDNA page.(I'm a bit funny about curves.)
>
> Fred Vines
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <>
> To: <>
> Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2003 2:02 AM
> Subject: [DNA] TMRCA for 37 Markers
>
>
> > In a message dated 12/17/2003 2:28:18 AM Eastern Standard Time,
> > , John writes:
> >
> > > Could either of you provide a probability table for the TMRCA for
various
> > > levels of matching on the 37 marker test? In other words a table that
list
> > > the number of generations corresponding to the 50%, 90% and 95%
probability
> > > levels for various numbers of matches (36/37, 35/37, 34/37, 33/37,
etc).
> > > John
> > >
> > >
> >
> > I also find a need for such a table, one that is easy to follow for the
> > non-scientists among us. I am dealing with offshoots of a single
lineage that
> > branch off (according to historical and conventional genealogical
accounts) at
> > 500, 700 or 1000 years. So, the chart should take into account such
time
> > frames.
> >
> > But, I think there first needs to be a refinement in interpreting the
"fast
> > mutators". We need to know exactly how they may be factored in to the
formula
> > to account for their faster rate. From my own admittedly limited
findings I
> > suspect they mutate much faster than currently thought. Such a formula
may be
> > easier said than done, but certainly would be helpful.
> >
> > Len Keane
> >
>
>
> > ______________________________
>



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