GENEALOGY-DNA-L ArchivesArchiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2003-12 > 1071773820
Subject: [DNA] TMRCA for 37 Markers
Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2003 13:57:00 EST
John Blair wrote, "In looking at the website I can see that using u = 0.002
and the Infinite Alleles method with a 35 for 37 match results in a 50%
probability the TMRCA is within 19 generations and a 90% probability the TMRCA is
within 37 generations, both within the time frame of surnames. "
Since I am not skilled at interpreting this type of chart, I appreciate
John's explanation. My question is, does the explanation refer to individuals who
share a surname or to random individuals? Somewhere I read that sharing a
surname lowers the expected distance to MRCA. Is the "50% within 19 generations"
figure for people who share a surname?
Renshaw DNA Project Co-Administrator