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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2004-02 > 1077913700


From: "Dan Compton" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] DNA testing turn around time
Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2004 12:28:20 -0800
References: <20040227182456.58743.qmail@web41203.mail.yahoo.com>


Lab capacity is the issue. In order to determine how long this bottleneck
is going to last I'm building a system dynamics lab testing simulation.
Does anyone know the sustainable market volume for DNA testing? Price
elasticity? At what rate is the technology expected to improve capacity?
cost? Does lab equipment have to be replaced? At what periodic cost? Does
new technology make old lab methods impractical? How much delay is there
between investing in increased capacity and realizing the desired increase
in testing volume? How much lab capacity is required for each of the test
kits and upgrades? Is there an optimal volume by test type from the lab's
perspective?

As answers to these question come in it will be possible to develop a
competitive market model simulation of the complex decisions being made.
Exercising the simulation into the future will provide a good predictor of
kit turn around time.

--Dan Compton


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Faux" <>
To: <>
Sent: Friday, February 27, 2004 10:24 AM
Subject: Re: [DNA] DNA testing turn around time


> Charles, Pat, Orin et al.
>
> I too am very frustratrated as to delays that are reaching into the months
not weeks category. As an example, one of my Australian participants placed
his order last summer! There has been one "hitch" after another - always a
reason - but the bottom line is that I am at a loss as to what to tell my
participants about turn around time. One of the most signifiant delays is
the often times extraordinary delay between the time the sample kit is sent,
and notification is received that it has arrived at the lab - yet the
participant completed the sampling procudure in one day. I am at a total
loss. It is at the point where it seems likely that the participant who
signed up yesterday will possibly not see his results until mid summer. I
have stopped advertising my Project. Word of mouth is an important vector
by which people learn of this study. When asked, my present participants
are going to be telling prospective participants that they are going to need
to be very patien!
> t time
> wise. People get very enthusiastic about the Project, sign up, only to
inquire three months later if I can tell them when their results are likely
to be available. So for the moment, my Project goes into its "low profile
phase". If and when the turn around time returns to some reasonable level I
will crank things up. I was also planning to seek outside funding for the
Project (since it is geographical), but this plan has also been shelved
until the turn around time is more predictable.
>
> Thank you for posting the chart Pat - it was quite sobering.
>
> As to DNAHeritage Charles, since 18 January they have suspended taking any
new orders due to problems with the lab with whom they contracted (but no
one knows which university lab is involved). Thats well over a month by my
reconing. This is what happens when there is no affiliation with a
university lab (as with FTDNA) or having one's own in house lab to do the
work (as with RG).
>
> David.
>
>
>
>
> Dr. David K. Faux, P.O. Box 192, Seal Beach, CA, 90740, USA
>
>
>
> www.davidkfaux.org
>
>
>
> ==============================
> Gain access to over two billion names including the new Immigration
> Collection with an Ancestry.com free trial. Click to learn more.
> http://www.ancestry.com/rd/redir.asp?targetid=4930&sourceid=1237
>

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