Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2004-03 > 1080572721

Subject: Re: [DNA] Some thoughts about the near future [SNP mutation rate]
Date: Mon, 29 Mar 2004 10:05:21 EST

In a message dated 03/28/04 8:42:26 AM Pacific Standard Time,

> One comment:
> with enough people (100,000?) playing the
> genealogy-DNA game, and a mutation rate of 1/30,000
> for each SNP,
> you are going to get random mutations of the SNP
> markers for the haplogroups and thus will have to
> do lots of them (lots of SNPs) to figure out what
> a person who has "the" SNP mutation for two wildly
> different groups really was, a few generations back.
> In other words, you can't, in the long run, just
> do one SNP and say "this haplogroup".

That number of 1/30,000 must come from some other context. The rate most
often quoted for SNPs is .00000002 per base per generation (2 times 10 to the
minus eighth power, in case I didn't type the number of zeros correctly). SNPs are
considered to be Unique Event Polymorphisms (UEPs). That is probably an
exaggeration, but they are treated as if any SNP has occurred only one time in all
of human history. SNPs accumulate very gradually over time and are used to
define haplogroups.

Ann Turner - GENEALOGY-DNA List Administrator
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