GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

From:
Subject: Re: [DNA] How many STRs??
Date: Sun, 4 Apr 2004 18:15:06 EDT

In a message dated 04/03/04 11:31:57 PM Pacific Standard Time,
writes:

> I may be alone in this, but my concern is in trying to get a better handle
> on
> the probabilities between the "minimal" TMRCA and the maximum.

Gayle's new MRCA Chart program can help you visualize this. The theoretical
maximum is exceedingly large, so in actual practice, we talk about the 90th
percentile, or the 99th percentile, or the 95% confidence interval (the region
between 2.5 and 97.5). When you look at one of the curves generated by Gayle's
chart, you'll see some numbers plotted at the 100th percentile (her graph goes
from 0 to 1, where 1 = 100%), but the underlying numbers would be rounded up
from 99.9999 (or even closer to 1). The thing to notice is that the curve
flattens out as it approaches 1, so that you have to add many more generations to
get a little bit closer to certainty.

http://www.bearport.org/Downloads/MRCAChart.zip 

Ann Turner - GENEALOGY-DNA List Administrator
Search or Browse the archives, Subscribe or Unsubscribe at
http://lists.rootsweb.com/index/other/Miscellaneous/GENEALOGY-DNA.html

This thread:

• Re: [DNA] How many STRs?? by
  • Re: [DNA] How many STRs?? by

  • Re: [DNA] How many STRs?? by