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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2004-05 > 1083474420


From: David Faux <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Rate of Non - Paternity Events
Date: Sat, 1 May 2004 22:07:00 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <000001c42ff4$01d79d90$ee199951@default>


Hi Alastair:

Thanks for the reference below. I read it with great interest. Curious that the rate of biological paternal non - paternity is 1% in the Swiss, 8% in the Yanomano of Venezuela, and varies between 1% to 30% in the USA. Some inconsistencies exist, such as a rate of 1.4% versus 10% in two studies of Michigan. Clearly there is a strong negative correlation to socio-economic status: e.g., 1% "high status" to 30% in "low status" males in the USA being the parent of a child they wrongly believe is their biological progeny.

While this is most intriguing, it does not address the matter noted in my previous post - time and place. This site provides data relating to the last quarter century. What is most important for most genealogists to know is the likelyhood say 150 years ago in say Norfolk England. Here is where your estimates of 2 to 5% can only be rough guestimates.

I have explored enough Church sessions records as well as court cases from various times and places, and I would use the expression "highly variable" in relation to this matter. What we do know from Y-DNA studies compared to genealogical record sources is that there are families with many branches where there have been no non - paternity events in 400 years (e.g., various studies of French Canadian families).

I do, however, agree entirely that this is an important issue, and that it is incumbent on each of us to study the "problem" in the area where our ancestors lived, and in the time in which they lived. For example, my study of the matter would suggest that my ancestors who were Quakers or Congregationalists in New England and New Jersey would have a low rate of non - paternity events. The Hull family study (one of my ancestors being Rev. Joseph Hull of Crewkerne Somerset England and Maine USA) certainly supports this hypothesis - down to the present day.

David.

Alastair Greenshields <> wrote:
Hello David,

The figure of 2-5% non-paternity rate is possibly a conservative
estimate. The following page cites a list of sources suggesting many
different rates, which of course will vary with socio-economic groups.

http://www.childsupportanalysis.co.uk/analysis_and_opinion/choices_and_b
ehaviours/misattributed_paternity.htm

Some of the sources are from paternity testing companies, so will be
skewed (the paternity being under question in the first place), although
there are several other population sources.

To have zero cases of non-paternity in Shetland (or anywhere else) would
be extraordinary. For a non-paternity event fail to be recorded
wouldn't be. Shetland's small population and isolation would likely
result in a lowering of haplotype diversity as genetic lines die out and
aren't replaced from the outside, and therefore a non-paternity event
would again be less likely to show up with Y-chromosome testing too.




Kind Regards,
Alastair





Dr. David K. Faux, P.O. Box 192, Seal Beach, CA, 90740, USA


www.davidkfaux.org



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