GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2004-06 > 1088031596


From: (John Chandler)
Subject: Re: [DNA] Those markers 26-37
Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 19:00:02 -0400 (EDT)
References: <BAY17-F36yDd3OJXsNQ000538e5@hotmail.com>
In-Reply-To: <BAY17-F36yDd3OJXsNQ000538e5@hotmail.com> (jothom53@hotmail.com)


Jody wrote:
> So my question is. . . . is there any point in my working hard to find a
> paper link to this family or is any possible relationship so far back in
> time that my efforts would be fruitless? What do these kinds of results
> mean?

If you use mutation rates of 0.0023 for 1-step mutations and 0.000115
for 2-step mutations, then your 33/37 near-match gives an estimated
TMRCA of 24 generations (+15/-10). In other words, the 95% confidence
interval extends from 4 generations to 54. This is obviously not as
encouraging as the situation you saw before you extended to 37 loci,
but it leaves plenty of room for a connection within the past three
centuries. You didn't say exactly how many generations back you were
willing to look, though, so it's really up to you to decide if the
search is worthwhile for you. If you had been hoping for a connection
only five generations back, for example, I'd say the prognosis was not
good.

John Chandler

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