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Subject: [DNA] Re: Family tradition versus Y-DNA results
Date: Mon, 4 Oct 2004 15:02:30 EDT
In a message dated 10/4/2004 10:31:15 AM Eastern Standard Time,
Orin Wells writes:
It is very possible. I have seen it in our project too. Again I say this
is not rocket science. The mutation rates are not predictable with any
accuracy in any particular family. The rates being quoted are based on an
average over some group of participants and like political polls there is a
very wide margin of error. Our project ranges from no mutations over 500
years to three mutations within a single generation
I strongly agree. In my KEANE Project I'm finding it most frustrating to
attempt to analyze mutation rates for individual markers and factor them into a
time frame consistent with known historical records. While my project does
have a range of "genealogical interest" extending back to about 1700 years in
Ireland (Ulster), what I am finding thus far is that a GD of 150 years +/- 25 per
total GDs is most consistent with known history and well-researched pedigrees
in estimating TMRCA. I understand that another project involving some of
the same lineages has made a similar finding.
I think many are trying too hard to be totally scientific in a relatively new
field with insufficient databases to properly factor in the significance of
individual DNA markers.
Len Keane
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