Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2004-12 > 1104256720

From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] MRCA = 800 AD
Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 10:58:40 -0700
References: <>

Garvey generated some interesting bar graphs showing the distribution of
differences between haplotypes of the major European haplogroups from their
groups' modal values. For R1b the most likely distance was 8 steps. If you
want to convert this into differences between any two random haplotypes of
the R1b haplogroup, multiply by square root of two I believe. So that would
be 11. I interpret this to mean that if you had no other information at all
and you had two R1b haplotypes differing at 11 of 25 markers, then they can
be expected to be no more related than two randomly picked members of the
world's entire R1b population who derive from the R1b founder who lived tens
of thousands of years ago.

----- Original Message -----
From: <>
To: <>
Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 2004 10:13 AM
Subject: [DNA] MRCA = 800 AD

> List:
> Ok, heres one for the books.
> I just received an e-mail from a fellow in Normandy who provided me with a
44 generation chart of his line back to Eystein "Glumra" (d 879 AD).
Eystein had two sons, Ragnvald (the ancestor of my correspondant) and Oulry
whose 4th great grandson was Waleran, comte (count) de St. Clair.
> One of my Shetland participants, surname Sinclair, appears to be a
descendant of the original Norman family of St. Clair (many with the surname
Sinclair adopted this name so only a few will be direct descendants of the
famous family).
> The fellow from Normandy, who I will call Jean, and my Sinclair
participant match on 19 of 25 markers with some individual marker values
being very rare. The motif is DYS390=23, DYS391=11.
> It is possible that we are seeing what has to be the earliest documented
MRCA between two individuals. Since there are so many generations where
non - paternity events could have taken place, I am unclear as to whether
this is an identical by state or identical by descent situation.
> Would someone who is more adept at stats than I kindly determine the
expected number of mutations in 90 transmissons (45 for each man back to the
alleged common ancestor) using both the standard mutation rates (e.g., .028)
and those arrived at by FTDNA recently for their first two panels. Gracias.
> David F.
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