Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2004-12 > 1104264047

From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] MRCA = 800 AD
Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 13:00:47 -0700
References: <> <>

Doug, I think this an excellent question for your class to work on, and I
will be interested in what they come up with. I will be working on this
while on the Mexican beach next week, so maybe we can compare notes when I

----- Original Message -----
From: "Doug McDonald" <>
To: <>
Sent: Tuesday, December 28, 2004 12:50 PM
Subject: Re: [DNA] MRCA = 800 AD

> wrote:
> > Ken:
> >
> > Unfortunately I must admit to using some sort of "subitization" (I think
that term is known in math) approach to estimating likelihood (intuitive
guessing more or less).
> >
> > Jean and Mr. Sinclair have DYS385a,b = 11,15. I know that this is rare,
and in a case where the paper trail points to the same ancestor this will
tilt by "relative certainty factor" toward accepting the hypothesized
> >
> > Can you, Doug or John or others here who are math whizes devise
something more systematic so we could factor marker value rarity into a
decision - making algorithm of some kind?
> >
> I can't ... but there are people who can. We have a class
> here at UIUC that actually is supposed to teach people to
> answer other people's questions like this. They take
> questions, and I will submit this.
> Doug McDonald
> ==============================
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