GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-02 > 1107447768


From: Doug McDonald <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Extinction Rates for new mutations from a Founder
Date: Thu, 03 Feb 2005 10:22:49 -0600
References: <002501c5088e$f887e140$eb409145@Ken1> <REME20050201201207@alum.mit.edu> <016901c508e3$f512de20$eb409145@Ken1> <REME20050203000042@alum.mit.edu>
In-Reply-To: <REME20050203000042@alum.mit.edu>


John Chandler wrote:

>
> Ok, so I have to bite the bullet and do the extra bookkeeping. The
> result is different, and it appears that 30,000 runs may not be enough
> to get a clean indication of what the expected effective mutation rate
> is. However, I'll report the result as it stands and try a bigger run
> overnight.
>
> Surviving founder lines: 3377 of the original 30,000 (predicted 3429
> from the extinction rate).
> Mean effective rate of the 3377 cases: 0.0017 (compared to 0.003 actual)
> Peak of the distribution of effective rates: 0
>
> Bottom line: I was wrong. There is a reduced effective rate.


I would suggest the following.

Start with a group of say 100 men, with a growth rate of
1% per generation and your choice of number of sons distribution.
after 200 generations split off 15 closely related men and 5 others
and form a new population which has a growth rate of 2 (doubling)
for 8 generations and then 3% for 42 generations. After another 150
generations do another split of the same sort from one or the
other populations randomly chosen, and repeat the splitting every
200 generation, from a randomly chosen population.

Doug McDonald

This thread: