GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-03 > 1110084604


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Help Interpreting Sorenson Near Matches
Date: Sat, 5 Mar 2005 21:50:04 -0700
References: <AC44D004-8DF7-11D9-A75D-000393D35286@comcast.net>


I think the .025 indicates the specific probability that 22 is the number of
generations to common ancestor. By the time you start adding in probability
of 23 and 21, then 24 and 20, then 25 and 19, you start to build up a decent
probability that common ancestor was 22 plus or minus a few generations.

Are you really 14 repeats at DYS 19 and showing 15 below because you made
the Sorenson adjustment? Try reducing the number of markers you seek a
match for. There are not too many people in the best of databases who will
match on every of many marker, except for close cousins. And what's the
odds a close cousin contributed to the database started out in Utah?
Actually, I found an exact match with same surname in Sorenson. But to this
day we have not found the common ancestor within the last 250 years.

Keep your 14 at 393 if you eliminate use of some of the fast markers in
seeking matches of a reduced haplotype. That 14 picks out an interesting
group of folks --- maybe --- but maybe that 14 just occured last generation
in your family and means nothing about cousins from the more distant past.
That's the probabilistic nature of this game. It is unlikely, but that must
always be kept in back of your mind.

Ken.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Martha Bowes" <>
To: <>
Sent: Saturday, March 05, 2005 9:24 PM
Subject: [DNA] Help Interpreting Sorenson Near Matches


> At the Sorenson database I get the following near matches to my father,
> but I'm not sure how to interpret this (I adjusted for database). The
> surnames do not match. The results in one case say: "Most likely number
> of generations separating you from your paternal MRCA" 22
> "Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) at 22 generations" 0.025. This
> doesn't sound too significant, if I understand it correctly to say only
> a 2.5 % chance of relatedness at 22 generations. Is there any reason to
> check again with 37 markers?:
>
> Locus
> Comparisons:
>
> DYS385 13-13
> DYS388 14
> DYS389I 13
> DYS389II 31 Match #2 is off
> DYS390 22
> DYS391 10
> DYS392 11
> DYS393 14
> DYS394/19 15
> DYS426 11
> DYS437 16
> DYS439 11
> DYS447 22
> DYS448 24 Matches #1 and #2 are off
> DYS449 27
> DYS454 11
> DYS455 8
> DYS458 15 Match #1 is off
> DYS459 8-9
>
> Martha
>
>
> ==============================
> Jumpstart your genealogy with OneWorldTree. Search not only for
> ancestors, but entire generations. Learn more:
> http://www.ancestry.com/s13972/rd.ashx
>
>



This thread: