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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-03 > 1111120148


From: (John Chandler)
Subject: Re: [DNA] Beginner Help Understanding Sorenson MCRA
Date: Thu, 17 Mar 2005 23:29:08 -0500 (EST)
References: <FCB7D5AB-975A-11D9-BAAE-000393D35286@comcast.net>
In-Reply-To: <FCB7D5AB-975A-11D9-BAAE-000393D35286@comcast.net> (message fromMartha Bowes on Thu, 17 Mar 2005 20:08:22 -0700)


Martha wrote:
> Why is the most likely num. of gens to MRCA 35, with that likelihood
> being 2%, while there is a 25% likelihood of MCRA at fewer (30) gens? I
> would think the higher likelihood of the two would be the greater (35)
> generations. I clearly don't get the terminology.

The key word is "cumulative", applied to the 25%, 50%, and 75% numbers.
In other words, the likelihood is 2% of exactly 35 generations, but
25% of 30 or fewer.

John Chandler


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