GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-03 > 1111786787

From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Application of ASD to Null DYS439
Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2005 14:39:47 -0700
References: <64.51b56a44.2f758634@aol.com> <00cc01c53182\$11133c70\$21de0418@c1076818a>

If you have 6 haplotypes then you had 6 times 5 divided by 2 = 15 squared
differences to average at each marker (some could be zero)?

Then 10.1 was the sum of average squared difference over the 24 markers?
You divided by 2 times the sum of mutation rates?

That's how I would do it. I see no reason why 77 generations can not be a
"most likely" estimate for this event. The folks in the journals would use
a rate 1/3 the rate you used. Don't ask me why, exactly? That is what we
are trying to figure out. So they would estimate three times the age you
found.

You found no Null 439 haplotypes with continental pedigree?

Ken
----- Original Message -----
From: "Joe Fox" <>
To: <>
Sent: Friday, March 25, 2005 2:31 PM
Subject: [DNA] Application of ASD to Null DYS439

> I applied the Average Square Deviation concept to an estimate of the
> possible age of the Null DYS 439 results from FTDNA - assuming it was due
to
> a single incident. So far, we have identified 5 different family names
> where this has happened - all estimated R1b. In addition there was one
Fox
> combination, where the common ancestor is at least 10 generations back but
> probably not much more than that and I included this (perhaps I shouldn't
> have.) Summing the squares of differences for these 6 at each marker as
Ken
> Nordtvedt has described recently, averaging them and adding for 24 markers
> (obviously 439 doesn't count,) I get a value of 10.1 for the ASD. The
total
> mutation rate for these 24 markers is .066 (from MacDonald,) so I get the
> group's age as 77 generations or about 2000 years. Sound reasonable?
>
> The names are Fox, Little, Atkins, Vines and Adams. If anyone knows of
>
> Joe Fox
> Lafayette, CA
>
>
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