Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-03 > 1112041514

From: Doug McDonald <>
Subject: Dating men
Date: Mon, 28 Mar 2005 14:25:14 -0600
References: <> <008701c533d2$0de11250$eb409145@Ken1>
In-Reply-To: <008701c533d2$0de11250$eb409145@Ken1>

I think that what is needed here, to get accurate ages,
is SNPs .... lots of private SNPs. It will come, first
at $50,000, but eventually at $1000 ... finding all the
differences between a set of Y chromosomes.

If we know the SNP rate accurately, which should be
doable using genealogical methods as we now do for STRs,
we simply count up the number of mutations between two
people, and divide by twice the mutation rate to
get the TMRCA in generations.

Since the mutation rate is such that there is likely a
mutation every other generation, in 1000 generations
there would be 500 mutations, which would give an
accuracy of 10%. This assumes that we know about hot spots
and that the mutation rate has not changed over time.

Even in 50 generations one should get a useful result.

Doug McDonald

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