GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

From: Doug McDonald <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] STR mutation rates again
Date: Wed, 13 Apr 2005 14:09:48 -0500
References: <REME20050412213710@alum.mit.edu>
In-Reply-To: <REME20050412213710@alum.mit.edu>

John Chandler wrote:

> With the new release of data and software at the SMGF software, it's
> time to take another look at the mutation rates. The old version of
> smgf.org had a peculiar kink in the probability curve for a perfect
> match, such that the stated probability was always a little low for
> the submitter and always a little high for everyone else.

Which is why I used a roundabout procedure to get the rates.

I think we should now use Chandler's reverse-engineered SMGF rates.
This leaves out 464. My number for that is very tentative,
and I suspect that it varies dramatically for alleles that
start at 12 and those that start at 17.

The SMGF rates accord much better with the rates derived from
our own genealogy projects than do the much higher rates
of FTDNA.

Doug McDonald

This thread:

• STR mutation rates again by (John Chandler)

  • Re: [DNA] STR mutation rates again by Doug McDonald <>