Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-05 > 1116273015

From: "Eric Olson" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Birthday Paradox
Date: Mon, 16 May 2005 13:01:48 -0700
References: <>

Oops, I mis-spoke. The second record (s) are not only from a census, but
from a Hart family history book and from LDS records, and also from her
obituary of 1884. (Catherine Carrel married a Hart and daughtered out).
It is this Carrel family whose Y-DNA has been tested. A birthday paradox?
Can the probability these are the same woman be calculated?

Catherine (Carroll/Carrel) Hart...

Was born in Cumberland Co., PA on 29 August 1807 according to LDS and also
to a family tree online, and also according to her obituary. Neither of
these sources names her parents, but do agree on the birth date.

Now if one calculates the birth date for Catherine daughter of Philip and
Mary Carrel, from the independent court documents in Steubenville, 1819, her
birth date is also 29 August 1807. I say but can't prove these are the same

"Hart" Mrs. Catherine Hart was born in Pennsylvania, Aug. 29, 1807, and Died
at the residence of her son, Wm. M. Hart, near Buckeye, Jan. 26th, 1884,
aged 76 years, four months and 27 days. She was married to J.C. Hart in
April 1826. Moved to Illinois in the fall ... <snip>


----- Original Message -----
From: <>
To: <>
Sent: Monday, May 16, 2005 11:38 AM
Subject: Re: [DNA] Birthday Paradox

> Eric,
> What is the date of the Ohio court record and the date of the Census
> I don't believe that any census lists the day of birth or the place of
> birth other than the State or Country. Are you saying that she was in
> Co., PA at the time of the census? The 1900 Census records the month and
> of birth..
> Julia
> In a message dated 5/16/2005 1:32:36 P.M. Central Daylight Time,
> writes:
> What is this birthday paradox? And how can it be quantified?
> I have an Ohio court record of a Catherine Carrel born 29 August 1807,
> birthplace not stated - and a separate census record of a Catherine
Carrel born 29
> August 1807 in Cumberland Co., PA. There are no other records of ANY
> Catherine Carrels to be found in that time frame.
> I assume these are the same person, but what are the chances I am wrong,
> that it is just a coincidence?
> Eric
> Seattle
> ==============================
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