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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-06 > 1118034319


From: "Andrew and Inge" <>
Subject: RE: [DNA] Middle Eastern ancestral markers on new Euro 1.0 test
Date: Mon, 6 Jun 2005 07:05:19 +0200
In-Reply-To: <REME20050605204835@alum.mit.edu>


John
> What I said was this: if it is observed that more offspring are surviving
in one haplotype or surname group than in others, then it is clear that that
group has a selective advantage. This is, in fact, an operational
definition of selective advantage.

No it is not. The term "selective advantage" clearly indicates that there is
a cause underlieing the effect - something non-random so to speak, meaning
that in terms of probability, the probabilities of survival for this group
are higher than for others. But at least I now see where the problem is.

> As for attempt "b" above, you are much closer, but you left out an
important proviso -- majority haplotype in a large population.

Well you still have not defined large and small. The examples you give are
always useless extremes (50 or "billions").

> Let's separate out the various categories. Small population is ruled out
because we're talking about a big area. Declining population is
ruled out because there's no sign of that. These are the only factors that
are relevant to the subtle process of random die-off. You want to invoke
war, famine, and pestilence? Ok, but that's a different beast altogether.
When the Horsemen get started, there's no telling whether anyone at all will
survive. That is how "bottlenecks" are made. If you look at a modern
population and find evidence of low haplotype diversity, then you probably
have a bottleneck in the picture, and the modern population is probably
nothing at all like the ancient one. Iberia, however, doesn't seem to have
that property.

Could you offer any convincing arguments for any of the above assertions? As
far as I can see war, famine, pestilence, small populations, and occasional
periods with declining populations are perfectly normal in Iberian history
and pre-history. On the other side there have been immigrations, but I think
what we were discussing was whether you *need* immigrations in order to
explain a big change in the haplotype population.

Best Regards
Andrew


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