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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-06 > 1118038363


From: "David Wilson" <>
Subject: RE: [DNA] perfect 25 marker match with no mutations--but different surnames
Date: Sun, 5 Jun 2005 23:12:43 -0700
In-Reply-To: <80d089712a304294650961258d921085@earthlink.net>


Hmmm, good question. The short answer is yes and the long answer is no.

By which I mean: If the only haplotypes I matched on a 12 marker comparison
were all from individuals who shared a surname different from mine, I would
almost certainly be inclined to think there was a good chance I should
consider a recent patrilineal connection and a possible NPE in my line. But
human brains are wired to see patterns and associations when they don't
necessarily exist, so I would probably force myself (I hope!) to take my
impressionistic judgment with a grain of salt.

Such a situation would definitely be an open invitation to extend to 25 or
37 markers for me and at least one of the 12 marker matches. In the real
world I still don't have a 37/37 match with anybody, same surname or not. If
I had five 37/37 matches with a different surname and none with my own, I
would think the universe was using big flashing neon arrows to point out a
path of investigation.

In general, 12 marker matches always feel like weak evidence to me unless
there are some really unusual values held in common. But even in those
circumstances I would test out to 25 or 37 to see if the parallels held up.

David W.

-----Original Message-----
From: John Carr [mailto:]
Sent: Sunday, June 05, 2005 6:28 PM
To:
Subject: Re: [DNA] perfect 25 marker match with no mutations--but different
surnames


David, your response to Diane formed a question in my mind. Given that
12 marker results are not very relevant for genealogy since the
probability of a match is within the general population is high with
near modal haplotypes. But, what struck me about one recent
participant was that nearly all his near matches were with a single
surname group other than his own. [side note, so far no Carr's match
each other even close, but normally have near matches with many other
surnames, though not the same ones]

Would you consider such an occurrence to indicate a higher than normal
probability that this individual is related to that other surname
group?

John Carr



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