Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-06 > 1118159003

From: Robert Stafford <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Likelihood of Descent from Common Ancestor
Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2005 08:43:23 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: 6667


It is pretty easy to see that you need to separate the families, even without a phylogenetic chart. You can use the progenitors' haplotypes for your calculation of TMRCA, instead of those of living individuals. This gets rid of a lot of noise from recent mutations.

In each case, the two great grandsons and one great great grandson whose haplotypes have been deduced are unlikely to share a common ancestor in the time when surnames were used, much less 3-4 generations. #1872 clearly belongs to a separate line also. I would just treat them as separate families without the first two generations, unless you have a really good paper trail for one back to Capt. Thomas.

The colors below are from your descendant chart on p. 4 of the PDF. The numbers in parentheses are the samples which represent the deduced haplotypes for the family progenitors. The blue progenitor's is not shown as deduced on this chart. However, it seems to be the modal value of the large group that match #1872.

This is what I got, but recheck them.

Gray (#1391) with yellow. (#1620) 18/15
Gray (#1391) with red (#31933) 21/25
Gray (#1391) with blue (#1872) 21/25 with 2 steps at DYS439
Yellow (#1620) with red (#31933) 21/25 (2 steps at DYS464d, but probably count as 1)
Yellow ( #1610) with blue (#1872) 16/25 with 2 steps at DYS394
Red (#31933) with blue (31933) 19/25 with 2 steps at DYS394

Whatever method you use, there is little chance the progenitors would be related within 3-4 generations (or however you wanted to calculate blue).

It looks like early genealogists forced connections to Capt. Thomas. They probably based them on sparse early records Many were lost and others were impractical to use without transcriptions or indexes. There are a lot more VA records available in transcription now, especially court orders. They often shed new light on relationships.

Bob Stafford.

"Kenneth V. Graves" <> wrote:

How confident can I be that any two pairs of these
branches are or are not descended from a common ancestor within the number
of generations separating them?

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