GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-06 > 1118502584


From: Robert Stafford <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Project goal reached
Date: Sat, 11 Jun 2005 08:09:44 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <20050611142852.41095.qmail@web81802.mail.mud.yahoo.com>


When you are testing a documented family trees, it is
much easier to use Ann's mutation calculator to
calculate the odds of the mutations occurring than to
try to deal with TMRCA. It can be very confusing to
non-technical people.

http://members.aol.com/dnafiler/MutationCalculator.exe

I counted 10 transmission events for #31804. Assuming
a rate of .004, which is FTDNA's rate and high by most
other estimates, I calculate a probability of .05 for
4 mutations and .01 for five. (Be sure to check it,
though.)

You also have a common mutation at 576 for different
lineages. As is, the genealogy requires 2 pairs of
parallel mutations, which is not as unlikely as it
seems, however.

Bob Stafford


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