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From: "Alister John Marsh" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Divergent marker results/ reordering results table slow/fast
Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2005 09:15:49 +1200
References: <061620051144.27774.42B1663B0001952800006C7E22070032019C0A9B9C0A9D@comcast.net>


Hi Roberta,

I took mutation rates from various estimates published on this list, by list
members. There is a bit of debate over the fine details, but I think the
estimates given are good enough to rank them roughly in a slow/ fast order,
at least for the purposes of my exercise. The order I used is as follows,
but the experts in this area might have better suggestions. I did not have
an estimate for 634, but I understand it is particularly slow, so I put it
at the top of the list.

There seem to be a couple of different mutation rate list estimates
circulating, some higher, some lower, but both are generally in the same
slow/fast order. I think the rates I used were the lower estimates. Very
roughly, I think that gives the average mutation rate for the SLOW 18=
0.0008, the MEDIUM 18= 0.0028, and the FAST 13= 0.0084.

Whilst this is at best very approximate, it indicates the fast 13 are about
10 times faster than the slow 18. If these figures are roughly correct, you
would expect to find on average 7 mutations in the fast 13, for every 1
mutation in the slow 18.

If these figures were roughly correct, you would expect on average about 1
mutation in the slow 18 in 70 transmissions. For example, for 2 descendants
of a common ancestor 1000 years ago, you have roughly a 50% chance of one of
them having a mutation. So for 4 descendants of a common ancestor 500 years
ago, perhaps you would find 1 mutation about 50% or the time? But roughly
for families related in in the 200-500 year time frame, more often than not,
they would match on all the slow 18, with perhaps one or two exceptions if
you were considering a larger family with 10 or 20 members tested. I am not
an expert on the maths, but my feeling is that there will be a trend for
families related in the "genealogical time frame" to match on all or most of
the slow 18. But because random chance is involved, there will always be
surprising exceptions to the rule of thumb.

John.

SLOW 18:
634
454
445
426
455
388
462
452
463
GATTA1B07
438
393
459A
459B
YCA2A
YCA2B
392
437

MEDIUM 18:
442
389-1
461
GATTAC4
448
19
389-2
385A
385B
441
460
GATTAH4
391
444
464A
464B
464C
464D

FAST 13:
GATTAA10
447
456
439
390
446
458
449
607
570
576
CDYA
CDYB





----- Original Message -----
From: <>
To: <>
Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2005 11:44 PM
Subject: Re: [DNA] Divergent marker results/ reordering results table
slow/fast


> I have the list of fast mutators from FTDNA, but it doesn't provide enough
differentiation to group into fast, medium and slow as you mentioned. Where
did you find that inforamation. I didn't think the "list" was ever released
following the conference last year pending someones doctoral thesis. Would
you mind sharing which markers are in which group?
>
> Thank you,
>


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