Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-09 > 1128013806

From: charles <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] STR mutation rates
Date: Thu, 29 Sep 2005 13:10:06 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <>


I encourage all project admins who have the data for a group of people
for whom they know the most recent common male ancestor to submit their
data to my log. As to bias, several have submitted small clusters. John
Chandler recently submitted a whole bunch of small projects. A lot of
those have zero mutations. All are welcome. The data will speak for
itself. I think we'll need a hundred or more surname projects before
anything meaningful can be deduced. I encourage you to submit yours.

Charles Kerchner
Y-STR Mutation Rate Log

> In a message dated 09/28/05 1:21:38 PM Pacific Daylight Time,
> writes:
>>Note the peculiarity of the log data: the average for 1-25 is higher
>>than either 1-12 or 13-25. This suggests a bias in the decisions to
>>upgrade from 12 to 25 -- those with observed mutations in a 12-marker
>>test were significantly more likely to upgrade than those with a 12/12
>>match. In particular, the average rate for the 12-marker tests of
>>those who upgraded is 0.00267, while the average for those who did
>>not upgrade is 0.00175. This effect would be even stronger if we
>>could count the 11/12 near-matches that exploded upon upgrade and
>>were therefore eliminated from the statistics.
> That's an interesting observation about the data in Charles Kerchner's log. I
> was trying to think through whether this effect might have an impact on
> FTDNA's mutation rate study, especially for the 3rd panel (which I am assuming has
> a smaller number of samples). I didn't come to any conclusion, though.
> As for the overall rate in the log, I haven't uploaded my data, mainly
> because I have a rather small number of transmission events in my known pedigrees.
> However, there are no mutations, and if others are behaving like me, that would
> bias the log toward a higher rate.
> Ann Turner
> ==============================
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