Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2005-09 > 1128084738

From: "Jerry L. Ivey" <>
Subject: RE: [DNA] Re: Another set of extended DYS464, DYF385S1, DYF399S1 results
Date: Fri, 30 Sep 2005 07:52:18 -0500

Probabilities are just that. Realities are sometimes different. I have a
first cousin once-removed with which I have only a 34/37 match. He had
two of the changes and I had one from our common ancestor. Both of us
have sons which match us.

-----Original Message-----
From: Robert Stafford [mailto:]
Sent: Friday, September 30, 2005 5:23 AM
Subject: Re: [DNA] Re: Another set of extended DYS464, DYF385S1,
DYF399S1 results

"Peter A. Kincaid" <> wrote:In terms of 23/25
matches I certainly wouldn't cast this out.
You have a common ancestor with two branches with one mutation in each.
They are only one mutation from the ancestor but could be two from each
other. If there were two mutations in each branch then they could be
four mutations apart. Still possibly closely related. Then it is a
matter of time frame. Here we get into the realm of mutation rates. What
is reasonable? Well there are some great statisticians here who can
calculate this. However, as I noted as number 2) above these mutations
rates were initially based on one study. Others add their fudge factor
to help get closer to their number 1) above. In the end we will have to
wait for more broader based studies before one can really be firm on
this. This is part of the newness factor.

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