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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2006-01 > 1136648340


From: Doug McDonald <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Mutation Rates
Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 09:39:00 -0600
References: <e8.22e337aa.30f11da8@aol.com>
In-Reply-To: <e8.22e337aa.30f11da8@aol.com>


wrote:


>
> Y STR rates can be determined by pedigree data, but they are fast enough to
> use father-son studies as well. In fact, the bulk of the data comes from
> father-son studies. The average rate is quite consistent from study to study, about
> .002 per marker per generation for the most commonly used markers, but there
> is not enough data yet to be very confident about the rate for individual
> markers.

An,, that last statement is no longer true. The available different
methods for determining individual marker rates do not agree perfectly,
but on average they do. There are now many markers where we have enough
father-son data (at least 12 mutations) to get a fairly accurate
individual marker measure. These agree quite well with the SMGF "slope"
method, and reasonably well with variances within rather homogeneous
groups such as R1a, and reasonably well with coalescent methods. All
told, the rates currently listed on this mailing list by John Chandler
and I are likely within a factor of two of correct.

Given that the measured rates range from .0002 to .01 per generation,
a factor of two is pretty good. For the markers common to FTDNA and
SMGF, it is much better than a factor of two.

Doug McDonald


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