Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2006-01 > 1138423467

From: "Phil Goff" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Genealogy Paper Trails vs. Y-DNA Testing
Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 22:44:27 -0600
References: <> <> <>


You are fortunate to have documented lineages dating back 1000 years that
are also confirmed by DNA testing, if I understand you correctly. I checked
out a Ferguson DNA project at and didn't see
any documented lineages back to the year 1000 AD. This Ferguson study
includes participants in haplogroups I1a, I1b, R1a and R1b. What is the URL
for your Ferguson project?

There is not always a rigorous paper-trail search in advance of DNA testing.
When the results come in and participants match, the administrator will put
this into the "match" category. When results arrive that don't match, I've
seen this sometimes attributed to the participant's family being from a
different lineage. That is, there's no further research to determine why the
haplotype/haplogroup is completely different from others in the group. In
order to compute an NPE rate, one must start with a traditionally proven

As to the computation of 22% after 8 generations based on a 3%/birth NPE
rate, I cited the NPE calculator in my earlier post. However, it's not mine
and I can't take credit for it nor feel any need to defend it as it seems to
work. If you search the archives for this list you'll find a discussion of
several studies of the NPE rate. If you feel 3% per birth is too high, the
NPE calculator will accept other numbers. The results can be a valuable
planning tool to determine how many participants you may need as a project
is getting started.

I encourage you to post your results, particularly very old lineages, to
Charles' mutation log, which is another excellent tool. Thanks,

Phil Goff

----- Original Message -----
From: "Colin Ferguson" <>
To: <>
Sent: Friday, January 27, 2006 6:26 PM
Subject: Re: [DNA] Genealogy Paper Trails vs. Y-DNA Testing

> I don't know what the answer is but 22% after 8 generations seems way out
> of whack. We have too many FERGUSON who show a TMRCA of 1000 years or so.
> --
> Cheers,
> Colin Ferguson

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