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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2006-02 > 1138875782


From: "John McEwan" <>
Subject: RE: [DNA] How many Scots are Scots
Date: Thu, 2 Feb 2006 23:23:02 +1300
In-Reply-To: <BKEPIIDHHKEPCMDIEBKBAEEDCOAA.andrew.en.inge@skynet.be>


Dear Andrew, Ken and list

Okay

You tempted me out of my hole to do something I should have done months
ago, summarise the phase 3 cluster analysis of Ysearch data that I did
in September by listed ancestor origin. See
www.geocities.com/mcewanjc/p3modal.htm.


Percentage figures and total N below. WE =western Europe, EE eastern
Europe.


Origin SCT IRE ENG WE EE other unknown N
R1bSTR19Irish 12 35 3 2 0 2 47 184
R1bSTR22Frisian 7 4 26 3 0 2 58 117
R1bSTR47Scots 38 6 8 0 0 3 45 133

However, while it is pretty obvious what is going on here, you must
remember the database is biased. The alternative table below summarises
them as a % of R1b for each region with totals of individuals with R1b
for each region.

Origin SCT IRE ENG WE EE Wales unknown
R1bSTR19Irish 9 20 1 3 0 0 6
R1bSTR22Frisian 3 2 8 3 0 3 5
R1bSTR47Scots 21 2 3 1 0 3 4
N 241 323 401 118 23 33 1359

What can we take from this?
1) circa 20% of Irish origin R1b is R1bSTRIrish (remember the poorest
probably left Ireland and these would overwhelmingly be the indigenous
population. Those remaining in Ireland as in Moore et al's study would
be biased sample relative to the original pre Norman population) :-)

2) A substantial fraction of stated Scottish origin R1b is R1bSTRIrish
as would be expected from the Dal Riata migration.

3) R1bSTRIrish only makes up a minor fraction of R1b in other regions

4) Approximately 21% of Scottish origin R1b is R1bSTR47Scots

5) R1bSTR47Scots makes up only an extremely minor % of Irish origin R1b
and similar comments apply for other regions.

6) R1bSTR22Frisian is at relatively low proportion of R1b for most
regions but is highest in England (This cluster is also the highest
proportion of any for English origin R1b)

Some other comments:
a) The numbers are very low but R1bSTR24 makes up 35% of Eastern Europe
origin R1b (n=23) and 29% of Southern Europe origin R1b (n=7).
b) R1bSTR43 makes up 8% of western Europe R1b (n=118) and 13% of Eastern
Europe R1b (n=23).
c) The other defined clusters have no marked regional foci.
d) Wales is a mystery, not many samples have extended profiles and they
seem to be in 3-4 clusters which are distinct from other regions.

Now I would not read too much into these observations but the results do
support the numerous comments that have been made on the list over the
last year.

I will post all the results on the web site in weekend.

Cheers

John McEwan

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