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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2006-05 > 1147971122


From: Doug McDonald <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Rethinking Non-Surname Matches
Date: Thu, 18 May 2006 11:52:42 -0500
References: <3f5.2da3292.319de5c0@aol.com>
In-Reply-To: <3f5.2da3292.319de5c0@aol.com>


wrote:
> I’d like to suggest that it’s time rethink our approach of dismissing
> matches with other surnames. I’m suggesting this for 2 reasons. (1) the extension
> of testing to 37 and 59 markers brings the MRCA time horizon much closer and
> consistent with the use of surnames
>
> 90% likelihood of MRCA
> 12/12 24 generations 840 years “almost beyond surnames”
> 25/25 10 generations 350 years “beyond most brick walls”
> 37/37 5 generations 175 years “within paper trails”
> 59/59 ? generations <100 years “within paper trails”
>

> Thoughts?
>


My first though is: those numbers are WAY off. The time is
almost twice what they say. The real number is more like 7
generations for 59 markers. At 108/108 markers it would be 4
generations. 108 are currently available commercially. I
will have 102 when FTDNA deliver their 59 upgrade.

Doug McDonald


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