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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2006-08 > 1154994079


From: "David Weston" <>
Subject: odds of line daughtering or dying out
Date: Mon, 7 Aug 2006 20:41:19 -0300


Hello,

Can any one point me to any research into determining what the odds are for the descendents of any
given male daughtering or dying out within a specified number of generations? I'd like to see the
derivation. What I am after knowing is what are the odds of any given Y-lineage becoming extinct.
Or, in context of genealogy, what are the odds that I am the last living male in my paternal line
(I'm not).

If no one has tried to figure it out previously, then any suggestions how I might work it out
myself. I know enough Statistics that I can do they math but am not sure of all the variables to
consider. I figure there are lots of assumptions that need to be made. I'll limit myself to max 50
generations from present. So, what I need to know is what are odds (assume constant over time
frame) of any given fertile male of having one or more sons, each of whom lives long enough to
procreate.

Thank you for any assistance that can be offered.

David Weston
Group Administrator
East Anglia Geographic DNA Project
http://www.geocities.com/thurlowons/eagdna/



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