**GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives**

From:"David Weston" <>Subject:odds of line daughtering or dying outDate:Mon, 7 Aug 2006 20:41:19 -0300Hello,

Can any one point me to any research into determining what the odds are for the descendents of any

given male daughtering or dying out within a specified number of generations? I'd like to see the

derivation. What I am after knowing is what are the odds of any given Y-lineage becoming extinct.

Or, in context of genealogy, what are the odds that I am the last living male in my paternal line

(I'm not).

If no one has tried to figure it out previously, then any suggestions how I might work it out

myself. I know enough Statistics that I can do they math but am not sure of all the variables to

consider. I figure there are lots of assumptions that need to be made. I'll limit myself to max 50

generations from present. So, what I need to know is what are odds (assume constant over time

frame) of any given fertile male of having one or more sons, each of whom lives long enough to

procreate.

Thank you for any assistance that can be offered.

David Weston

Group Administrator

East Anglia Geographic DNA Project

http://www.geocities.com/thurlowons/eagdna/

**This thread:**

**odds of line daughtering or dying out by "David Weston" <>**- Re: [DNA] odds of line daughtering or dying out by "Ken Nordtvedt" <>