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From: "John McEwan" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] EA Oppenheimer results
Date: Wed, 27 Dec 2006 11:51:55 +1300
In-Reply-To: <ccf.6c8d361.32c2a56e@aol.com>


Dear Lloyd

Compliments of the season to you.

Well I still have not got my Oppenheimer book, but I decided to have a
bit of a snoop on your haplotype.

As you know you are placed as R1bSTR2 on my clustering analysis last
year. Having SNP tested with a variety of providers you are M269+, S21-,
S28-,M153-, M222-, SRY2627- aka R1b1c*. You are 8 away from the modal of
R1bSTR2 and 10 away from the R1b modal. In fact you are also close, to
R1bSTR40 and R1bSTR43 groups.

This R1bSTR2 group was relatively small in my analysis, but has members
in England (3%), Iberia (1/9), western Europe (3%), Wales (4/33), but
lower levels in Ireland and Scotland. What do I take from this? Well not
much actually, other than it would appear to be a group associated with
the Atlantic façade (which is assumed to have come from the Iberian
refuge). Its TMRCA using adjusted estimates from Zhivotovsky et al. also
appears to "generally" support this (well it also suggests the mutation
rates used by Oppenheimer may have been lower or the group was more
diverse), as does the S21- S28- R1b1c* tag.

Now given I have trouble assigning members to groups using 37 markers,
and Oppenheimer is using fewer marker, albeit a different method, my
guess is Oppenheimer is actually talking about a much larger group. To
sort of "simulate" this I have taken you haplotype and used Yhrd. At 9
markers in Yhrd you are vanilla AMH R1b modal except for being
DYS389-1=12. My "guess" is this is the sole difference Oppenheimer had
to work with.

Perhaps not unexpectedly, this exact haplotype has 103 exact matches
from 40,108 samples around the world. There are matches in North (n=13)
and South (23) America (read Irish/Scots/Welsh/English, Spanish and
Portuguese) as well as Europe (n=65). Perhaps more interestingly is the
locations of matches in Europe, which include a smear around the coastal
fringe of Iberia with a REAL hotspot (11/168) in Northern Spain
[Basque]. The rest of Europe has them as a smear around Europe including
Italy, Germany/Denmark, Switzerland, Poland (fewer), Scandinavia (very
few), Balkans (fewer), very few around Belgium and the Netherlands and
NONE in England and Ireland. France of course is the usual Genealogical
BLACK HOLE with very few samples. The locations sampled in the Britain
are only England/Wales or London and for Ireland they are not specified.


Soooo... putting my neck on the line. The first point I want to make is
with skimpy "bikini" haplotypes you can get quite a lot of information
from their group properties, but it is almost impossible to assign a
person to a single group with real confidence because of convergence
(i.e. two or more groups of different origins appear have the same
haplotype). This is the same as saying DYS390=23 are not all S21+, but
DYS390 distribution can tell us a lot about S21+. This is because when
you get convergence you typically have one major group and a smattering
of much smaller independent origins. What Oppenheimer (without reading
his book) has done is extract more of this information. To sort of get a
feel for "possible" level of convergence I had a look at individuals who
were DYS389-1 = 12 in my phase 3 dataset. They appear to be scattered
across nearly all R1b groups I have defined, including 15 in
R1bSTR19Irish (which we now know are all M222+ and this subclade has a
modal of DYS389-1=13 and therefore has to have a separate origin) and 6
in R1bSTR22Frisian (again solidly S21+ and DYS389-1=13 modal so clearly
another separate origin). Therefore, I would have some caution about
inferring specific origins to an individual on the basis of a bikini
haplotype in this case. However, that said I think Oppenheimer has a
reasonable case that the R1b bikini haplotype of DYS389-1=12 and modal
values for the other 9 markers is associated with Iberian refuge and
subsequent expansion from that refuge after the last ice age. It clearly
has a peak in northern Spain and declines with distance away from that
location.

Cheers

John McEwan


Lloyd asked
>>>>>>
Need to know: My results were R1b-10. Is this the same as R1b1c* as
determined by FTDNA ?

Quote: "The R1b-10 'Ruy' cluster was the main male gene cluster that
moved
into the British Isles
during the Mesolithic from 11,500 years ago." "......the main source
of the
gene flow from the south
western Basque refuge...."

Am also S28-. How would this fit in ?





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