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Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2007-06 > 1181354738


From: "Leo W. Little" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Modal R1b1c9 (S21+) has a bipolar distribution in
Date: Fri, 8 Jun 2007 19:05:38 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <003301c7aa1e$b39362b0$1dc26a4a@PAKINCAID>


About 95% of known S21+ has DYS492=13, and about 95% of known S21- has DYS492=12.

Of R1b with DYS492=13, 56% in ysearch has DYS390=23. Of R1b with DYS492=12, only 7% in ysearch has DYS390=23.

That makes DSY390=23 useful for tracking probable S21 distribution in YHRD.

See http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.com/~geneticgenealogy/1313.htm for such a distribution, and note that it also shows healthy percentages in eastern Europe.

Granted, ysearch is biased toward western Europe, so the above percentages for DYS390 and DYS492 might not hold in eastern Europe.

And, of course, the number of R1b samples from eastern Europe is small, so the confidence is somewhat low that the YHRD numbers reflect the populations as a whole.

Nonetheless, I feel we'll still find a healthy percentage of S21 in eastern Europe when more data becomes available -- though in smaller percentages than in northwest Europe.

As for origins ... we could assume a northwest European origin, and that multiple Germanic migrations brought S21 into eastern Europe and the Balkans.

A possibility I've been exploring is that S21 is an old SNP, pre-dating the LGM. It may have been resident in all the refugia, but I suspect mainly in Southern France/Iberia.

The large percentage of S21 we see in Friesland, et al, is the result of later founder effect in the region. No doubt some of that northwest S21 did migrate into Eastern Europe.

However, older S21 may also spread into the Balkans by a southern route, bypassing a German connection. The Romans may have been a later southern vector.

We would expect east European haplotypes from that migration to show different genetic drift than haplotypes that arrived via northwest Europe.

I think there's a trace of such a difference, but we really need a lot more sample from eastern Europe that have tested S21+ (or at least have DYS492=13) to be sure.


"Peter A. Kincaid" <> wrote:
Let me be clear that I believe Alan Foster to be very well
respected and it is not my intent to question his credibility.
Furthermore, others have also come up with spikes in their
data for this region as well.

However, I don't see any special significance of this area
in terms of pre-historic time. Alan Foster in his first
message noted:

"Does this suggest that S21+ may originated in the Balkans
and from there, post LGM, migrated northwards to the
Berlin - North Sea latitudes?"

My post was to say no and that I don't think the data
is there to support that. Especially since 1) there are
adjacent areas with no recorded results for this
haplotype and 2) this was a critical area for the
Romans. I also questioned why and how the aggregate
percentage was arrived at given that my check of the
numbers did not correlate. Clearly there was something
amiss and certainly one has been revealed.

Correct me if I am wrong but the 12 aggregate McEwan
haplotype results seem to be:

Bratislava, Slovakia 4
Budapest, Hungary 3
Hungary 2
Zagreb, Croatia 3

This is now based on a population of:

Bratislava, Slovakia 26 / 164
Budapest, Hungary 34 / 193
Zagreb, Croatia 20 / 150
Szeged, Hungary 12 / 100
Hungary 18 / 114

Previously I did check his map coordinates and based on
an epicentre at about Siófok I still don't see how the
following are not included in the population:

Budapest, Hungary [Ashkenazi Jews] 3 / 35
Baranya, Hungary [Romani] 4 / 78
Fülöpszállás, Hungary [Small Cumanian] 6 / 22
Vienna, Austria 27 / 66

For the first three clearly some filtering is going
on due to ethnicity. I still believe that if Zagreb represents
one extent from your epicentre then Vienna should be as
well. Furthermore, if the YHRD identifier Hungary is included
then would not all samples from Hungary. The following two
are not, because they seem to be too far from the chosen
epicentre, and as a result the ratio is not affected.

Debrecen, Hungary [Romani] 5 / 43
Eastern Hungary [Romani] 1 / 71

So I come back to my whole question of why
this aggregate for southeast Europe. The spike
in the southeast can clearly be noted by Bratislava,
Slovakia 4/26 (15.4%) and Zagreb, Croatia
3/20 (15%). So far, these are the only two real distortions
in the area so far. Given the quick drop-off of the
McEwan haplotype east, south, and west of the locale
in question, I think the explanation is an introduction of this
haplotype to the area from outside.

There are clearly historical explanations for this haplotype
coming to the area. I noted the Roman occupations at
Bratislava. Just across the border from Bratislava in Austria
was the large Roman fortress of Carnuntum (present day
Petronell-Carnuntum). Budapest, Hungary had another
Roman fortress called Aquincum. Between Bratislava and
Budapest was another Roman fortress called Brigetio
(Komárom/Szony area). Between Bratislava and Zagreb
were the Roman camps of Aquama (Cakovec, Croatia)
and Poetovio (Ptuj, Slovenia); both on the Drava River.
Just outside Zagreb itself was the Roman center of
Andautonia (Scitarjevo, Croatia). In addition to these military
camps, Roman developed cities in this area included Iovia Botivo
(today Ludbreg, Croatia), Savaria (today Szombathely, Hungary),
Scarbantia (today Sopron, Hungary) and Arrabona (today Gyor,
Hungary).

Regardless of this outside Roman influence the principal
explanation for the McEwan haplotype is the Lombards.
They settled in the area centered around Gyor, Hungary.
See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Kll.jpg)

for a map of their migration history starting in northeast Germany!
All in all, I don't see any prehistoric significance to this spike
in south east Europe - certainly not as a LGM refugium.

Best wishes!

Peter





----- Original Message -----
From: "afc700 ."
To:
Sent: Friday, June 08, 2007 5:50 AM
Subject: [DNA] Modal R1b1c9 (S21+) has a bipolar distribution in


>
>>>Peter Kincaid queried some points of mine...
>
> Peter
>
> It was not an objective of mine to identify where S21+ R1b is most
> commonly
> found. It was to identify the distribution of the abbreviated S21+ modal
> haplotype within YHRD's European R1b populations.
>
> I did not pre-select any areas, the objective was to uncover the existing
> structure, and it revealed two concentrations, one in Berlin where 10.3%
> of
> a sample of 156 haplotypes carried the modal values, and at a second
> location, around Lake Balaton (at about 47'N, 18'E) where the 110 putative
> R1b haplotypes within 100 miles distance(i.e in an area bounded by
> Bratislava, Budapest, Hungary, Szered and Zagreb - all of which were
> included in my count) produced a total of 12 haplotypes with S21+ modal
> values. This gives 10.9% (My previous 11.3% was based on an incorrect
> sample
> size of 106 haplotypes).
>
> Regarding your comments about other distributions of R1b, in England and
> elsewhere, I can't comment on them. Unless you have data which has been
> obtained using identical search criteria as mine (DYS19, DYS389, DYS390,
> DYS391, DYS392, DYS393 and DYS385)then we are not comparing like with
> like.
>
> For example, any comparison with data in the published studies by
> Capelli,
> Oppenheim, and Weale etc, will be questionable as none of them included
> DYS389 or DYS385 in their search criteria.
>
> Thanks for your interest.
>
>
> Alan Foster,
>
>
>


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