GENEALOGY-DNA-L ArchivesArchiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2007-07 > 1183863557
From: "Eric Olson" <>
Subject: [DNA] General Probability Question
Date: Sat, 7 Jul 2007 19:59:17 -0700
I have two historical references to a certain Margaret Carroll. The first is in an Ohio County Courthouse, where as a minor in 1818 she is seeking a legal guardian. She gives her birth date as 20 August 1802. The second record is her obituary dated 1898 that states, Margaret (Carroll ) Curry was born 20 August 1802 in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, born of German parents.
What are the chances these are the same person? I find that surname Carroll runs at about 1/5000 of surnames in America. The two exact birth dates seems compelling, but is there a formal way to calculate the probability they are the same person?