GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2007-07 > 1184027309


From: (John Chandler)
Subject: Re: [DNA] Help please with marker 458
Date: Mon, 9 Jul 2007 20:28:29 -0400 (EDT)
References: <008701c7b415$794b0120$2401a8c0@your447023ae6b><REME20070629172639@alum.mit.edu><a81622ac0706291814v778c80ccl9882806072865762@mail.gmail.com><REME20070703220030@alum.mit.edu><a81622ac0707041809y68277e45iaa87951637aacb9a@mail.gmail.com><REME20070705181857@alum.mit.edu><a81622ac0707051724y16754956obfb853b6686e74ed@mail.gmail.com><REME20070707152459@alum.mit.edu><a81622ac0707071304x11373a0en3b0b4e52a7b2e3c@mail.gmail.com><REME20070707183721@alum.mit.edu><a81622ac0707071637o34a3421dr36660529da9f75a4@mail.gmail.com>
In-Reply-To: <a81622ac0707071637o34a3421dr36660529da9f75a4@mail.gmail.com>(jmknapp@gmail.com)


Joe wrote:
> Similarly, if there is general migration between tribes, haplotypes
> will flow either way. In the simulation I ran, there was no such
> interbreeding or migration. But see for yourself--I predict that your
> mutation models curves will be better-behaved with the following
> population of just one interbreeding tribe of 10,000, vs the previous
> case of 10 non-interbreeding tribes of 1,000:
> http://coolohio.com/dna/onetribe29.tab

I have run the haplotypes through the mill. The mutation model
curves look just as messy as before. I think the key parameter
here is the number of men from the original batch of 5000 who
have descendants at the end. I'm guessing that the new run has
slightly fewer surviving lineages, but not significantly fewer.

Here's what I'd expect to produce a more realistic result:
instead of setting the population quota to a fixed number, use
an exponentially increasing value that starts at 2 and goes to
some limit (but add a small constant number to the nominal quota
so that the initial pair will have children). This might help to
damp out the oscillations, among other things.

Here are the results of the analysis. I see that the biggest value is
0.011 this time, instead of 0.014, but let's not forget that there are
only 29 markers now instead of 37.

Scaled to avg 0.00479
Rate --- Std dev
0.00648 0.00040
0.00224 0.00012
0.00480 0.00042
0.00461 0.00044
0.00817 0.00016
0.01126 0.00109
0.00593 0.00030
0.00149 0.00016
0.00856 0.00073
0.00285 0.00027
0.00696 0.00036
0.00820 0.00052
0.00541 0.00048
0.00427 0.00025
0.00571 0.00017
0.00423 0.00062
0.00218 0.00019
0.00269 0.00011
0.00619 0.00011
0.00361 0.00035
0.00276 0.00044
0.00206 0.00017
0.00733 0.00028
0.00500 0.00022
0.00577 0.00040
0.00116 0.00018
0.00366 0.00021
0.00268 0.00027
0.00265 0.00027

John Chandler

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