Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2008-05 > 1211227088

From: "David Faux" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] S21/S28 Split+m223 stuff
Date: Mon, 19 May 2008 12:58:08 -0700
References: <018701c8b9dc$c8cbeb10$6400a8c0@Ken1>
In-Reply-To: <018701c8b9dc$c8cbeb10$6400a8c0@Ken1>


Try as I might I cannot see anything in the archaeological record which
would mirror an origin let alone an expansion at this time. This was The
Bronze Age, when Europe was extensively settled by a million (don't quote me
on this) or more people. The idea that there was one fellow circa 1800 BC
who spawned the whole S28+ gang just does not seem to wash. I am willing to
bet good money that one day in the mountains around the Swiss lakes they
will find a series widely scattered male skeltons from the Mesolithic who
will test S28+, and with very different YSTR values.

The bottom line is that for any computation to "work" it has to fit with the
broader context of what was going on in Europe at the time. Certainly we
know that the genetic estimate of the Niall and Genghis phenomena tallies
well with what is known historically. In the earlier years you would have
to take into account multiple back mutations (e.g., I have DYS390=25 and all
my cousins have 24 - my line will likely back mutate at some time down the
way). Generation time is a key ingredient and my take on it is that life
was short and generation intervals were also short. Anyway, your efforts
are appreciated, I just don't think that we have yet "arrived".

David K. Faux.

On 5/19/08, Ken Nordtvedt <> wrote:
> Taking some S21 and S28 databases from others which hopefully are reliably
> pure haplogroup collections, I stripped them down to 67 marker ones, leaving
> 130 "S21" and 80 "S28" haplotypes. So from other information we have about
> the structure of the tree downstream of M269, there seems to have been an
> explosion of that tree into a number of different surviving branch lines
> about 3780 years ago.
> I get an age back to the common MRCA for S21 and S28 to be 3780 years. The
> S28 MRCA is almost immediately after that event, while the S21 MRCA does not
> occur until about 500 years later, 3270 years ago.
> For my "I" friends, I find the common ancestor for M223-Roots and
> P78-Continental3 clades to be 7440 years ago. If you recall, Roots and P78
> MRCAs seemed the oldest within the M223 complex.
> I am going to take a break from running more databases through the existing
> programmed excel spreadsheet, and program another spreadsheet to fully do
> the interclade node time estimates. They are really less subject to pesty
> factors than are the MRCAs for the clades themselves, because the former
> have no correction terms to estimate like self variance of a clade needs:
> SVar = M [ G - Sum over contributors c of f(c)^2 ]
> When you are estimating the age of a node from which separate branch lines
> go to two different clades, you are guaranteed that every line connecting a
> haplotype from clade A and a haplotype from clade B must have a length of
> 2G. That's why there are no corrections to the formal estimator and why the
> structure of that interclade formal estimator is so intuitive:
> 2MG = (Sum over a in clade A)(Sum over b in clade B) [ {r(a) - r(b)}^2 ] /
> N(A)N(B)
> Ken
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