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From: "Alister John Marsh" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] S21/S28 Split+m223 stuff
Date: Tue, 20 May 2008 11:09:21 +1200
References: <018701c8b9dc$c8cbeb10$6400a8c0@Ken1><ea3bd9560805191258n7d57e52an52752fc51f79edc4@mail.gmail.com><01f301c8b9ed$119eb2e0$6400a8c0@Ken1><ea3bd9560805191336u212d50bxda454d1c27958f9f@mail.gmail.com><024001c8b9f5$b85eb640$6400a8c0@Ken1><ea3bd9560805191457j17fda021nd57964e0743a802d@mail.gmail.com><026301c8b9fd$d86792b0$6400a8c0@Ken1>
In-Reply-To: <026301c8b9fd$d86792b0$6400a8c0@Ken1>


Ken, David

I have only read a few of the postings in this debate, so I may be missing
part of the story..

If hypothetically, the evidence were that the original native Irish who
walked to Ireland 8,000 years ago were S116+ one would suppose that the
S116+ mutation would have occurred more than 8,000 years ago, perhaps
10,000+ years ago. If hypothetically someone proposed a mathematical
formula which showed that S116+ should have occurred nearer 4,000 years ago,
there would appear to be an anomaly.

If S28+ is S116+, but S21+ is S116-, one presumes that the common ancestor
of S21+ and S28+ was earlier than the S116+ mutation. If S116+ occurred
before the original Irish arrived in Ireland 8,000 years ago, one presumes
the common ancestor of S21+ and S28+ must have at least been earlier than
8,000 years ago.

I don't have the evidence to conclusively say that the original Irish
settlers 8,000 years ago were S116+, but I would suggest it is on the
limited evidence available, at least a likely possibility. My view is that
S116+ is likely 10,000+ years old, in which case I would expect the common
ancestor of S21+ and S28+ to be more than 10,000 years ago.

Ken, what date do your formulas give for the projected date of S116+
mutation? "If" Irish 8,000 years ago were S116+, would that not eliminate
the possibility that the S21+ and S28+ common ancestor lived only 4,000
years ago? I think that David was suggesting your formula should be
consistent with what we know from archeology etc about context. That is,
"if" Irish 8,000 years ago were S116+, then it would be a dubious bet that
the S21+ S28+ common ancestor only lived 4,000 years ago.

John.



-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Ken Nordtvedt
Sent: Tuesday, May 20, 2008 10:15 AM
To:
Subject: Re: [DNA] S21/S28 Split+m223 stuff

That's all very interesting, but how all that informs you of whether or not
some individual about 4000 years ago had two sons, one being ancestral to
S21 males of today and the other son being ancestral to S28 males of today
beats me.

Ken


----- Original Message -----
From: "David Faux" <>
To: <>
Sent: Monday, May 19, 2008 3:57 PM
Subject: Re: [DNA] S21/S28 Split+m223 stuff


> Yes, well I am an ecclectic sort with little understanding of highter
> mathematical principles (something to which I freely admit). What I do
> understand is the concept of "converging operations" which applies in my
> field of the neurosciences. Real advances have generally come about not
> from one micro datasource, but through the combined efforts of those in a
> variety of fields. Hence, all calculations based on the concept of the
> biological clock and the attendant assmptions (and there is plenty of
> disareements on what is the "correct" approach) will only become
> meaningful
> when it supports available data from archaeology (including my "favorite"
> dating technique, dendochronology since it is direct not infered),
> linguistics, history (if appropos), and other genetic information such as
> the spread of lactase persistence and blue eyes. All of this must be
> integrated and present a coherent picture - at least this is the way I
> view
> the world. My hypothesis as to the Cimbri of Jutland being the most
> parsimonious explanation of the present distribution of R1b1c10 in the
> Danelaw of England and the east coast of Scotland is wonderful. Well
> except
> for one rather significant and most inconvenient fact that to date not a
> single Dane has turned up as R1b1c10 (very limited sampling), although the
> SE Norwegian and SW Swedish samples are consistent with the "story".
> Hurry
> up and wait - the story of my life - we need ancient DNA and modern DNA
> from
> regional studies that genotype to the deepest possible level.
>
> David K. Faux.
>
>
> On 5/19/08, Ken Nordtvedt <> wrote:
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "David Faux" <>
>> To: <>
>> Sent: Monday, May 19, 2008 2:36 PM
>> Subject: Re: [DNA] S21/S28 Split+m223 stuff
>>
>>
>> >I am sorry, I don't have the slightest idea what you are saying. Please
>> be
>> > more expansive in your comments. I don't understand cryptic (nor text
>> > messaging talk).
>> >
>> > David K. Faux.
>> >
>> I meant that those who developed the radioactive Carbon clock did not
>> calibrate it to the supposedly "broader context" of what was believed to
>> have been going on in the past --- although I bet some members of various
>> paleo______ fields warned them to do so in the early days. If we want a
>> scientifically sound, independent genetic mutations based clock it needs
>> to
>> be discussed, analyzed, argued about on the physical aspects of the
>> clock(s), and in the case of the mutation clocks on the quality control
>> of
>> the employed data sets as well.
>>
>> The reason to have clocks based on physical principles independent of the
>> phenomena for which dating is desired, is to establish the dating outside
>> of
>> the subject matter of interest, if for no other purpose than to suppress
>> in-grown or circular thinking about the subject matter.
>>
>> I solicit all forms of argument about the clock model, but less
>> interesting
>> are statements that basically say that some like or dislike, believe or
>> disbelieve, the clock ages for ydna tree nodes and clade MRCAs.
>>
>> Ken
>>
>>
>> >
>> > On 5/19/08, Ken Nordtvedt <> wrote:
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> ----- Original Message -----
>> >> From: "David Faux" <>
>> >>
>> >> > The bottom line is that for any computation to "work" it has to fit
>> >> > with
>> >> > the
>> >> > broader context of what was going on in Europe at the time.
>> >>
>> >> Your mental approach is laid out pretty clearly above. Ken
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
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