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From: Alan R <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] S21/S28 Split+m223 stuff
Date: Fri, 23 May 2008 12:45:16 +0000 (GMT)


Tim. Thats looks like you put in a huge effort there. I have to say the extraordinary efforts of people on this 'list', especially those doing the primary calculations is deeply impressive even if we all have different ideas about interpretations etc. I am just being a typical archaeologist and parasiting off the hard work of other disciplines.

There are clearly limitations in just using within-clade MRCA and inter-clade MRCA probably tells us much more. However the within-clade MRCA dates at least give us a minimum date for the clade and this alone could tell us a lot if there was only agreement on dates. They also suggest demographically significant points in time which one hopes (but no more) may also be detectable in the data of other disciplines. I haven't fully chewed over your data but broadly Ken's seems to suggest a later Bronze Age burst in west-central Europe which I cant help but associate with the dominance of the Celts and proto-Celts. Ken's suggested dating for the growth of the lineages and distributions of S28 and R1b1c6 does fit rather well the archaeologically arrived at 'traditional' dates for the rise of Celtic domination in west-Central Europe and Iberia respectively. The S21 rise is somewhat more hazy biut could fit in with the rise of the more peripheral
Celto-Germanic dominant lineages to the north. The Irish clade MRCA date does nicely tie in with the Ui Neill expansion in Ireland at the end of the Roman period. The date for S116- S21- using Ken's method seems to be close to the Neolithic which is interesting in itself (see my last post). It could all tally rather well with a currently popular view of the Celts ancestors arriving in the Neolithic and undergoing a big expansion in the later Bronze Age and Iron Age. However, the idea of a demographic change in late prehistory on this scale caused by the Celtic expansion is very much out of fashion but who knows? Im questioning everything now.

The rival dating method you used seems very broadly to suggest a Neolithic to Early Bronze Age expansion of prolific clades from an R1b population already established in western or central Europe in the Palaeolithic, a variation of the 'traditional' explanation. I don't know much about the distribution of these S116- S21- folks so I am not sure what the implications are. These appear to be the only folk who have MRCA that pre-date the big explosion that is variously placed in time by the two methods. That would makes their distribution interesting if there is a distinct pattern and might give us an idea where R1b was prior to the clade burst (at least an idea of minimum spread). I have been hoping some more details about these S116- S21- people might be posted and also any observations relating to the relationships between them to the 'eastern' R1b folk.

Alan

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